摘要
印度人民院选举与其国内政治生态演化密切相关。当前印度国内政治生态变化呈现三个方面新特点:印度政党力量格局进入印人党央地全面居优时期;印度教特性超越政治世俗主义并全面影响印度政治走向;央地关系呈现印中央政府对地方控制力加强态势。可以说,印度社会结构变迁、数字化工具发展以及政党竞争策略差异共同促成以上特点。印度政治生态新特点对印度内政外交均产生了重要影响。印人党虽对内提高政府施政效能但造成冲突性增加、主体民族凝聚力强化但民族宗教裂痕扩大、经济快速发展但不平等加剧。印度政治生态新特点使印度外交调整方向保持稳定;印人党主导的强势外交持续凸显,在周边塑造以印度为主的地区秩序;与美西方联系态势持续强化同时指向性更加明确;对华负面态度固化,中印关系短期内难有较大改善。
The Lok Sabha elections in India are closely related to the evolution of its domestic political ecology.The current development of India’s political ecology presents three new features:the specific form of the multi-party system has entered a period of dominance by the BJP;Hindutva has surpassed secularism;the Indian central government has strengthened the control of local governments.The changes in India’s social structure,the development of digital tools,and the differences in the competition strategies of political parties have jointly contributed to the above features.The new features of India’s political ecology have important impacts on India’s domestic and foreign affairs.Internally,the efficiency of governance has improved but conflicts has increased meanwhile;the cohesion of the main ethnic group has been strengthened but the rift between different ethnic groups and religions has widened;the economy has developed rapidly but inequality has increased.The new features of India’s political ecology keep India’s diplomatic adjustments stable and re-duce diplomatic fluctuations;the proactive diplomacy led by the BJP continues to highlight,shaping the regional order dominated by India in the neighborhood;the relationship with the U.S.and the West continues to strengthen and the direction is more clear.As the negative at-titude towards China solidifies,it is difficult for Sino-India relations to improve significant-ly in short term.
出处
《印度洋经济体研究》
CSSCI
2024年第3期25-44,152,153,共22页
Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review
基金
北京市社会科学基金青年项目“印度全球南方战略及对华影响研究”(项目批准号:23ZGC008)的阶段性成果。
关键词
印人党
印度教特性
克什米尔
人工智能
强势外交
Bharatiya Janata Party
Hindutva
Kashmir
Artificial Intelli-gence
Strong Diplomacy
