摘要
俄罗斯对美国战略认知的演变过程分为友好合作、竞争凸显和激烈对抗三个阶段。俄罗斯的强势外交和安全政策,表现为俄罗斯对美国和北约的强硬战略姿态以及追求超出自身相对实力的外交和安全目标。俄罗斯战略认知的演变与俄美两国的利益冲突之间有着相互塑造的关系,但是俄罗斯战略认知的变化并不仅仅取决于利益考量。俄罗斯之所以把北约东扩、乌克兰走向、叙利亚局势等看得如此重要,不惜投入大量资源,这是与塑造俄罗斯战略认知的历史和心理因素是分不开的。美国采取的许多对俄政策和行为,正是因为忽略了这些因素,才被俄罗斯看作是“侮辱性”和“威胁性”的,从而导致了双方敌意的螺旋式上升。由于俄罗斯独特的历史记忆和大国情结,俄罗斯对俄美两国的利益冲突作出了激烈的回应,这些回应虽然不利于俄罗斯的国家实力和整体利益,但却是可以理解的。随着俄罗斯对美战略认知的逐步定型,俄美关系在短期内很难实现所谓的“重启”。从俄罗斯对美战略认知的案例分析可以看出,战略认知自身有其相对的独立性,在受到利益冲突影响的同时,也受到社会文化因素的深刻影响,从而使得国家的外交与安全政策未必完全遵循理性主义的路径。
The paper reviews the three-stage evolution of Russia’s strategic perception of the US:friendship and cooperation,heightened competition and intensified confrontation.Russia’s assertive diplomatic and security policies can be observed through its hard-line strategic posture towards the US and NATO,and its pursuit of diplomatic and security objectives beyond its national strength.Although a mutual shaping relationship between the evolution of Russia’s strategic perception and its colliding interests with the United States can be seen clearly in Russia-US interactions,changes in Russia’s strategic perception are not merely determined by national interest considerations.Historical and psychological factors that shape Russia’s strategic perception play a very important role in making people understand why Russia has placed a high premium on NATO’s eastward expansion,the situation in Ukraine and its actions in Syria with a massive investment of resources.Many policies and actions adopted by the United States do not pay any attention to these historical and psychological factors,which is deemed as“insulting”or“threatening”by Russia,thus giving rise to a spiral of enmity and antagonism between the two sides.Due to Russia’s unique historical memory and great-power complex,Russia has made drastic responses to the conflicts of interests with the United States.Although these responses are not conducive to Russia’s national strength and overall national interests,they may still be justified.Now that Russia’s strategic perception of the US is beginning to take shape,it is quite difficult to“restart”the Russia-US relations in the short term.Viewed from the case study of Russia’s strategic perception of the US,strategic perception in itself has its relative independence,which is not only affected by conflicts of interests but also influenced by social and cultural factors so that a country’s foreign policies may not always follow the path of rationalism.
作者
宋伟
于优娟
SONG Wei;YU Youjuan
出处
《国际安全研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期73-90,158,159,共20页
Journal of International Security Studies
关键词
俄美关系
战略认知
外交与安全政策
强势外交
Russia-US relationship
strategic perception
foreign and security policy
assertive diplomacy
