摘要
应用FGOALS模式输出的未来气候情景数据驱动中国森林生态系统碳循环模型FORCCHN,模拟了东北地区森林生态系统碳收支未来可能的时空变化。预测结果表明:未来平衡发展情景(A1B)气候变化情景下,2003—2049年东北森林生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)和土壤呼吸在达到饱和状态前均呈波动上升趋势,将分别增加10.84%、134.43%,且土壤呼吸的增加速率远远大于NPP的增加速率;2003—2049年,东北森林生态系统可能仍将具有明显碳汇功能,但强度呈下降趋势,将下降95.64%;未来47年东北森林虽然碳汇能力在减弱,但吸碳总量还在不断增加,说明未来47年东北森林对降低大气中温室气体浓度上升以及缓解气候变化将会起到积极作用。
In this paper, the possible changes in carbon budget of forest ecosystems in Northeast China under the future climatic scenario were simulated by using the forest carbon budget model for China （FORCCHN） driven by the simulated future output data from FGOALS model. The results showed that under A1B （balanced development scenario） and in 2003-2049, the net primary productivity （NPP） and soil respiration rate of Northeast China forest ecosystems had an increasing trend, and the increment of soil respiration rate would be far higher than that of NPP （134.43% vs. 10. 84% ）. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China would still be an obvious carbon sink, but their carbon-absorbing capability would be decreasing. Nevertheless, the total mount of absorbed carbon dioxide would be still increasing. All of these illustrated that from 2003 to 2049, the forest ecosystems in Northeast China would play an active role in reducing greenhouse gases concentration and in mitigating the impact of climatic change.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期781-787,共7页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB400500)
国家自然科学基金项目资助(40675408)
关键词
东北地区
森林生态系统
碳收支
未来气候情景
模拟
Northeast China
forest ecosystem
carbon budget
future climatic scenario
simulation.
