摘要
基于未来气候变化情景（A1B）下区域气候模式（RegCM3）模拟的黄淮海地区1951-2100年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料和1971-2000年逐日站点气象资料,结合夏玉米不同发育时段对温度、降水和日照的需求,在前人温度、降水和日照适宜度的基础上构建了黄淮海地区夏玉米全生育期气候适宜度模型,并对1951-2100年黄淮海地区夏玉米气候适宜度的时空变化特征做了分析。结果表明：1951-2100年黄淮海地区夏玉米气候适宜度总体呈下降趋势。2011年之前黄淮海大部地区夏玉米气候适宜度高于0.80,河北南部、河南中东部、山东西部等地出现小幅上升;2011-2040年夏玉米气候适宜度开始下降,大部地区降至0.65~0.75,之后下降趋势越来越剧烈,至2071-2100年大部地区夏玉米气候适宜度仅为0.45~0.50。夏玉米拔节-抽雄和抽雄-成熟期对水热条件变化较其它发育期更为敏感,气候变化中这两个发育时段降水和温度适宜度的急剧下降是导致夏玉米气候适宜度下降的主要原因。
Maize is an important food crop and the Huang-Huaihai summer maize region is the largest corn-producing area in China. Based on daily 0.25 × 0.25 degree grid meteorological data under an A1B climate scenario（1951-2100）extracted from the regional climate model RegCM3 and 1971-2000 daily meteorological data for the Huang-Huaihai region,summer maize climate suitability modeling across the whole growth period was contrasted and combined with temperature,precipitation and sunshine. Our aim was to provide a theoretical basis for the rational development and utilization of climate resources and adjusting the layout of agricultural production. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of summer maize climate suitability in Huang-Huaihai from 1951-2100 were analyzed. We found that the climate suitability of summer maize from 1951 to 2100 followed a downward trend. During 1951 to 2010,summer maize climate suitability was mostly higher than 0.8 with southern Hebei,eastern Henan and western Shandong increasing slightly. It begins to decline 2011-2040 to 0.65~0.75,and then decreases fiercely to 0.45~0.5 from 2071-2100. The jointing-tasseling and heading-maturity stages were more sensitive to moisture and temperature compared to other growing-stages. From 1951-2100,the temperature and precipitation suitability degree on summer maize jointing-tasseling and heading-maturity stages both declined drastically,while that for the sowing-emergence and emergence-jointing stages changed slightly. The precipitation suitability degree and temperature suitability degree during these two developmental periods were the main drivers of the decline in summer maize climate suitability.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期782-787,共6页
Resources Science
基金
公益性行业(气象):"气候变化背景下农业气候资源的有效性评估"(编号:GYHY201106020)
关键词
黄淮海地区
夏玉米
气候适宜度
未来气候情景
气候变化
Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
summer maize
climatic suitability
future climate scenario
climate change
