摘要
基于SRES A1B温室气体排放情景,由全球气候模式(MPI_ECHAM5)产生的逐日气候模拟数据驱动TREE-RING树轮生态机理模型,模拟了小兴安岭红松(Pinus koraiensis)树木径向生长变化。结果表明:在A1B情景下,随着大气CO2浓度的不断增加以及局地气温的不断升高,红松树木生长开始和结束时间显著提前,2011—2060年比1961—2010年径向生长开始时间平均提前约5d左右,生长结束时间平均提前约3d左右。红松树木的径向生长量不断增加,2011—2060年比1961—2010年径向生长量平均增加约35%,径向生长量的增加主要是CO2施肥作用的结果,在不考虑CO2施肥效应下,只考虑降水量变化使树木径向生长量增加约2%,而未来50a的气温变化使树木径向生长量相对于1961—2010年减少约23%。
Climate change has had a significant impact on forest ecosystem.Pinus koraiensis is one of precious tree species in Northeast China.The coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest dominated by pine is the representative vegetation type in XiaoXing′AnLing of China.Under the climate change background,studying the response of the growth of Pinus koraiensis to climate change is important to understand the climate change impact on forest ecosystem.Simulation models as effective tools for assessing the climate change impact have been applied widely in different regions over the world.A process-based ecological mechanism model（TREE-RING） had been verified for simulating the radial growth of Pinus koraiensis in XiaoXing′AnLing of China.The results showed that simulated phenology was well coincident with observed phenology.There was a high correlation between simulated and observed cell series of Pinus koraiensis.Based on the validated TREE-RING model,the study simulated the growth trend of Pinus koraiensis in XiaoXing′AnLing under future climate scenarios and explored the response mechanism of tree growth to climate change,which is helpful to understand climate change impact,alleviate the negative effects of climate changes on tree growth and provide references for policy-making related to addressing the climate change. For this study,we intend to use TREE-RING model to simulate the growth of Pinus koraiensis in the XiaoXing′AnLing based on a middle medium emissions climate change scenario（SRES A1B） generated by global climate model（MPI_ECHAM5） from 1961 to 2060.The meteorological data including daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation with the resolution of 1°×1° was interpolated to Yichun meteorological station（47°73′N,128°92′E,240.9 m.a.s.l） with the method of Bilinear interpolation.The analysis on the variation characteristics of climate factors from 1961 to 2060 showed that atmospheric CO2 concentration will continue to increase and reach 563 mg/L in 20
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第24期7343-7350,共8页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB950104)
国家气象公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201106013)
国家林业公益性行业科研专项(200804001)共同资助
关键词
小兴安岭
红松
树轮生态机理模型
气候变化
XiaoXing′AnLing
Pinus koraiensis
REE-RING Eco-physiological model
Climate change
