摘要
随着"刘易斯拐点"的临近和人口红利的逐渐消失,劳动力质量而非数量成为长期经济增长的驱动力,凸显了劳动力技术禀赋对经济运行和人民币实际汇率决定的重要性。本文通过引入非齐序性消费效用函数,从理论上分析了劳动力技术结构通过要素禀赋机制、巴萨效应机制和收入机制等三条渠道影响实际汇率,要素禀赋机制的作用方向为正,但巴萨效应机制和收入机制的作用方向不确定。鉴于理论分析结论的不确定,文章进而利用我国工业行业年度面板数据,实证检验了劳动力技术结构对人民币实际有效汇率的影响效果,研究表明,劳动力技术结构对人民币实际有效汇率有正向显著的影响,稳健性检验证明了结论的一致性。
With the approach of Lewisian turning point and fading away of demographic dividends,labor qualities rather labor quantities become the motive to long-run economic growth. This highlights the paramount importance of labor skill endowment for a better economic performance and also the real exchange rate determination of RMB. Based on the assumption of non-homothetic utility function,the paper theoretically analyzed how labor skill structure affected real exchange rate,through factor endowment channel,B-S effect channel and the income channel. The first channel is positive,while the latter two channels are uncertain. Results from an empirical test using industrial annual panel data proved that labor skill structure has a positive effect on RMB real effective exchange rate.Conclusively,all robust tests prove the consistency of results.
作者
李颖
赵皓冉
LI Ying;ZHAO Haoran
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第2期161-173,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目"基于收入分配视角的人民币汇改绩效研究"(15BGJ034)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"人民币汇率制度改革的收入分配效应研究"(14YJC790072)
关键词
技术禀赋
人民币实际有效汇率
相对要素禀赋理论
非齐序效用
Skills Endowments
RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate
Relative Factor Endowment Theory
Non-homothetic Utility Function
