摘要
文章在萨缪尔森的分析框架下建立了一个两期多商品的跨期迭代模型来研究人口老龄化通过需求侧对实际汇率的影响。理论分析认为,在技术条件不变的情况下,由于跨期迭代,人口老龄化会使得消费相对增加,净出口减少。受消费者消费偏好和无套利均衡的制约,人口老龄化导致的净出口减少使得进口商品种类增加、出口商品种类减少以及劳动力工资相对上升,而劳动力工资相对上升使得实际汇率升值。为了对理论模型进行验证,文章使用1980~2019年93个国家或地区的非平衡面板数据分析了老年抚养比对实际汇率的影响。结果表明老年抚养比上升会使得实际汇率升值,中介效应回归结果表明老年抚养比上升会使得净出口减少,净出口的减少会使得实际汇率升值。
In the framework of Samuelson’s analysis,this paper establishes a two-phase multi-commodity intertemporal iterative model to study the impact of population aging on real exchange rate through the demand side. Theoretical analysis shows that under the same technical conditions,the increase of the old-age dependency ratio will lead to the relative increase of consumption and the decrease of net export. The decline in net exports was accompanied by an increase in the variety of imported goods and a decrease in the variety of exported goods and a relative rise in the wage income of labour. The relative rise in the wage income of labor will cause the country’s real exchange rate to appreciate. In order to verify the theoretical model,the paper uses unbalanced panel data of 93 countries or regions from 1980 to 2019 to analyze the impact of the old-age dependency ratio on the real exchange rate.The results show that the increase of the old-age dependency ratio will make the real exchange rate appreciate,and the mediating effect regression results show that the increase of the old-age dependency ratio will make the net export decrease,and the decrease of the net export will make the real exchange rate appreciate.
作者
韩保庆
王胜今
Han Baoqing;Wang Shengjin
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期105-119,M0004,共16页
World Economy Studies
