摘要
本文在Gregorio和Wolf(1994)模型的基础上,结合中国实际,将城乡二元结构下的劳动力市场分割和政府需求考虑进去,对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应进行了扩展研究。从全国整体和分区域层次,利用1995-2010年中国28个省份的面板数据对人民币实际汇率的长期波动进行了实证研究。结果表明,人民币确实存在巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,生产率的提升促进人民币升值,而部门间的收入差距阻碍人民币升值。同时,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应存在区域差异,在西、中、东部依次递减,其中西部地区政府消费所引致的投资的贡献度较大。
This paper studies on the extension of Balassa - Samuelson Hypothesis. Based on the model pro- posed by Gregorio ＆ Wolf in 1994, combined with China＇s actual conditions, we take demand sides specifically government consumption, labor market segmentation under dual structure in urban and rural economy into ac- count. From the level of the whole country and different regions, the paper empirically studies the RMB ex- change rate fluctuation with the panel date of 28 provinces from 1995 to 2010. The result shows that Balassa - Samuelson Hypothesis does exist in RMB, and the improvement of productivity promotes the appreciation of RMB, however, the effect of income gap is negative. Meanwhile, the Balassa - Samuelson effect has regional differences in the western, central and eastern regions. For the western areas, the investment caused by govern- ment consumption has a great contribution to it.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期42-54,共13页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社科基金重大课题"全球平衡增长议题对中国贸易摩擦的影响机制研究"(项目编号:09&ZD033)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
政府消费
贸易条件
实际汇率
巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应
Government consumption, Terms of trade, Real exchange rate, Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis
