摘要
随着人民币国际化进程的加快,人民币汇率波动的国际效应进一步加强。文章分别建立了单一国家和多国的动态CGE模型,基于最新的全球贸易分析计划(GTAP)数据库和中国2012年投入产出表,分别模拟了2016-2030年人民币持续贬值和先贬值后升值的两种情景,并从物价水平、国际贸易、经济总量、行业产出等多个方面分析了人民币汇率变动对中国及世界主要经济体的影响。研究发现:(1)在价格指数方面,人民币贬值将给中国带来一定的通货膨胀压力;(2)在贸易方面,人民币贬值只能在短期内扩大中国的净出口,但在远期反而会导致净出口下降;(3)在经济总量方面,人民币贬值只在开始阶段的短期内能促进中国经济增长,而长期贬值将导致中国经济增长速度放缓;(4)在产业结构方面,中国的农业和工业在贬值情景下的产量呈现先升后降的趋势,而服务业的产量持续下降。总之,两种情景均不利于中国经济的长远发展;相反,东盟、日本和美国等世界主要经济体将从中长期受益。因此,中国政府应当制定若干针对性的政策措施,加强预期管理,实施差别化的外贸政策,加强多方合作,积极应对国际汇率波动带来的风险。
With the acceleration of RMB internationalization, the international effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is further strengthened. This paper builds the single na- tional and multinational dynamic CGE models respectively, and simulates two scenarios of continued depreciation and appreciation after depreciation of RMB from 2016 to 2030 based on the latest Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） database and Chinese input-output table in 2012. Then it analyzes the impacts of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China and the world＇s major economies from perspectives of price level, international trade, econom- ic aggregate, industry outputs and so on. It comes to the results as follows：firstly, as for price index, RMB depreciation will bring some inflationary pressure to China;secondly, as for trade, RMB depreciation will only extend China＇s net export in the short term, but will depress China＇s net export in the long term;thirdly, as for economic aggregate, RMB depreciation will only stimulate China＇s whole economy in the first few years,and will lead to a deceleration of China＇ s economic growth in the long term ; fourthly , as for industrial structure, in the depreciation scenario, the output of China＇s agriculture and industry will ultimately decrease after expansion for several years; by contrast, the output of service sector will keep decreasing. In a word, none of these two scenarios is conducive to China＇s economic development in the long term. In contrast, the world＇s major economies like ASEAN, Japan, and the United States will benefit from RMB depreciation a lot in the long term. Therefore, Chinese government should formulate reasonable policies to strengthen expectation management, implement differentiated trade policies, improve multilateral co- operation and respond to the risks resulting from international exchange rate fluctuations actively.
作者
魏巍贤
马喜立
Wei Weixian Ma Xili(School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期98-109,121,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
