摘要
全球金融危机后,包括宏观审慎管理在内的跨境资本流动管理政策引起了国际社会的关注,但此类政策的有效性还有待进一步验证。本文采用倾向得分匹配法,基于71个新兴和发展中经济体2000—2017年的数据,检验了跨境资本流动管理政策对资本流动、汇率、信贷以及外债等的影响。实证结果表明,大部分跨境资本流动管理政策在降低FDI流入、抑制有效汇率升值和降低短期外债比重方面效果显著,但也有一些政策会促进有效汇率升值和国内信贷扩张;跨境资本流动管理政策在调控跨境资本流入和流出时具有不对称效应:对跨境资本流入管理的有效性大于资本流出;资本流动管理政策仅在短期内有效,持续时间通常在1至3年,国际金融局势变化也会导致部分政策效果迥异。因此,跨境资本流动管理政策仅可作为相关政策的补充,新兴和发展中经济体只有加强跨境资本流动监测、加快经济结构调整及健全金融市场等,才能维护金融体系平稳。
Since global financial crisis, foreign capital flows management including macro-prudential management attracts attention of international community. Effectiveness of these policies need further prove. This paper examines foreign capital flows management policies’ influence on financial stability indicators such as capital flow, exchange rate, credit and loan based on data of 71 emerging and developing economic entities from 2000 to 2017 applying Propensity Score Matching. The empirical results show that most foreign capital flows management policies have remarkable influence on reducing FDI flows, restraining effective exchange rate appreciation and reducing the share of short-term foreign debt. Meanwhile, some policies can accelerate effective exchange rate appreciation and domestic credit expansion. The influence of foreign capital flows management policies last from 1 year to 3 years generally. Effectiveness of these policies strengthens in Turbulent period of international macroeconomic situation. Therefore, foreign capital flows management policies should become supplement tool to macroeconomic policy. Emerging and developing economic entities should maintain the smooth operation of financial system through strengthening monitoring of cross-border capital flows, accelerating economic restructuring and constructing healthier financial markets.
作者
原雪梅
于衍淇
YUAN Xuemei;YU Yanqi
出处
《济南大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2019年第4期114-130,160,共18页
Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition
基金
国家社科基金项目“新兴经济体金融脆弱性测度及协同治理研究”(项目编号:17BJY184)之阶段性成果
