摘要
开放经济背景下,一国货币政策并不能完全独立不受干扰。本文通过构建EGARCH模型和TR模型,分析中美贸易条件变化对中国货币政策促进经济增长和抑制通货膨胀目标的有效性。其中,中美贸易条件分解为人民币兑美元汇率、中美利率差和中美贸易摩擦,通过影响贸易差额和跨国资本流动干扰货币政策的目标实现。分析认为,在目前出口大于进口、中美贸易摩擦加剧的情况下,货币供应量对促进经济增长的效果不明显。针对美国加息,中国应适当提高利率,以缩小利率差,一方面缓解人民币贬值和跨国资本流出压力,另一方面促进经济增长和平抑物价。
Under the background of open economy, a country’s monetary policy cannot be completely independent and undisturbed. By constructing EGARCH model and TR model, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of Sino-US trade conditions’ change on China’s monetary policy to promote economic growth and curb inflation. Sino-Us trade conditions are decomposed into RMB/US dollar exchange rate, Sino-US interest rate difference and Sino-Us trade friction, and the goal of interfering monetary policy is disturbed by influencing trade balance and transnational capital flow. The analysis shows that under the circumstance that the export is greater than the import and the Sino-US trade friction is intensified, the effect of money supply on promoting economic growth is not obvious. In response to the US interest rate hike, China should appropriately raise interest rates to narrow the interest rate gap, on the one hand, to ease the RMB depreciation and transnational capital outflow pressure, on the other hand, to promote economic growth and curb prices.
作者
徐梅
XU Mei(The School of Economics,Northwest University of Political & Law, Xi'an 710063,China)
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期28-37,共10页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“新时代面向国家安全的系统性金融风险识别、测度、预警及防控研究”(18BJY235)
西北政法大学青年学术创新团队计划
