中美贸易摩擦对世界主要经济体的潜在影响及我国的防范策略--基于多国动态CGE模型的实证研究被引量：8

Potential Impacts of Sino-US Trade Friction on Major Economies and China′s Defensive Strategies--An Empirical Research Based on a Multinational Dynamic CGE Model

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摘要本文建立多国动态CGE模型,根据贸易摩擦可能持续时间的长短,设置2019-2030年间四种模拟情景,研究中美贸易摩擦对世界主要经济体的潜在影响。研究表明:(1)贸易摩擦将给中美两国带来一定的通货膨胀压力,从中长期来看对美国的影响会越来越严重。(2)贸易摩擦将使中美两国实际GDP均遭受损失,摩擦持续时间越长,损失越严重。(3)贸易摩擦会使中美两国的出口量在中长期内均遭受严重损失,美国受损程度更大。(4)贸易摩擦会使除美国以外的各个经济体在间接标价法下的实际汇率相对于基准情景均呈现不同程度的下降;在摩擦终止后,中国实际汇率相对于基准情景依旧处于下降状态,但降幅远小于摩擦期间的幅度。(5)受贸易摩擦影响,相对于基准情景中美两国的居民实际收入均会呈现下降态势。(6)贸易摩擦期间中国对美国的工业出口量会大幅度下降,同时由于贸易转移效应的存在,中国工业品的出口市场将转向日本、东盟、欧盟或其他国家。 In an effort to assess the potential impacts of the trade friction on major economies in the world,this paper builds a multinational dynamic CGE model and sets four types of simulated scenarios in the period of 2019-2030 according to the possible duration of Sino-US trade friction.Outcomes of our research show that:(1)Sino-US trade friction will bring about certain pressure of inflation to both China and the US,and its impacts on the US will become increasingly serious in the medium and long term.(2)The real GDP of both countries will suffer losses due to the trade friction.The longer the trade friction lasts,the severer the losses will be.(3)The export volumes of both countries will sustain heavy losses in the medium and long term because of the trade friction,and the loss of the US will outnumber that of China.(4)On account of the trade friction,the real exchange rates of currencies of each economy except the US using the indirect quotation method will decline to varying degrees relative to the baseline scenario.After the friction ceases,the real exchange rate of Chinese Yuan will still show a decline relative to the baseline scenario,yet much smaller than that in the midst of the friction.(5)The real income of residents in both China and the US will show a downward trend relative to the baseline scenario because of the trade friction.(6)During the trade friction,China’s industrial exports to the US will decrease dramatically,while the exports will transfer to Japan,ASEAN,EU or other economies as a result of the trade diversion effects.

作者孙乾坤马喜立陈胤默 SUN Qian-kun;MA Xi-li;CHEN Yin-mo(School of Economics,Beijing International Studies University 100024;Beijing Research Institute of Cultural Trade,Beijing International Studies University 100024;Department of Strategic Development,Huaxia Bank 100005;Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 100732)

机构地区北京第二外国语学院经济学院北京第二外国语学院首都对外文化贸易研究基地华夏银行战略发展部中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出处《上海经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第5期110-127,共18页 Shanghai Journal of Economics

基金北京市社会科学基金研究基地重点项目(19JDYJA006) 北京市博士后工作经费资助项目“汇率波动及资本管制对经济影响的多国动态CGE模型研究”(2018-ZZ-084) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“加快构建开放型经济新常态下的国际经贸新规则研究”(16ZDA036) 北京第二外国语学院2019年种子计划科研项目(2111000710)的阶段性成果之一。

关键词贸易摩擦动态CGE模型贸易转移潜在影响防范策略 Trade Friction Dynamic CGE Model Trade Diversion Potential Impacts Defensive Strategies

分类号 F752.7 [经济管理—国际贸易]