摘要
本文利用投入占用产出技术构建投资和消费局部内生化的投入占用产出局部闭模型。基于新模型,文章研究了中美贸易摩擦的两个情境,美国单方面对中国的500亿美元商品和2000亿美元商品加征25%进口关税,对中国带来的短期综合影响。测算结果表明,两种情境下中国对美商品出口额将分别下降4.27%和16.03%,中国的出口增加值分别损失962.85亿元和3829.85亿元,出口拉动的国内非农就业分别减少78.62万人和331.05万人。以先进设备、信息通信技术、计算机等为代表的新兴ICT产业受直接影响较大,与此关联度较高的上下游产业也将受到明显冲击。在中美贸易摩擦频繁的背景下,中国可能将面临通货紧缩和相关行业就业人数减少的风险。面对贸易摩擦困局,中国需积极升级国内消费和优化投资结构。
China and the United States are the most important economies in the world,so to some extent their trade and friction would have great effect on world economy.In recent years,the Sino-US trade boomed under the keynote of mutual benefit,while the trade surplus increased rapidly.Under this tendency,the US Commerce Department did the"trade investigation"unilaterally in April 2018,and then,the trade friction between Sino and US broke out.To what extent would the Sino-US trade friction influence China’s economy and employment?How does the export decline conduct and spread via economic network of"investment,production,supply and demand"?What should China do to deal with unilateral trade protectionism of US and accelerate the economic transition?In order to answer these questions,the imperfect substitute import demand model is firstly bulit to measure the impact of adding tariff on China’s export by calculating the import demand elasticity of commodity in each sector.Meanwhile,the coupling relationship of"production,investment,and consumption"in macro economy system is considered,and the impact of China’s export decline on trade value added and employment is measured by partially closed input-occupancy-output model with partially endogenous investment and consumption,that built based on the input-occupancy-output technique.The combination of these above two models makes the change in export resulting from change in tariff and its impact on national economic system be measured exactly.Based on the new model,the short-term comprehensive impact of the US unilaterally on China’s 25%import tariffs on related commodities in 50 billion and 200 billion dollar scenarios is studied.In both scenarios,it is found China’s exports to the United States will fall by 4.27%and 16.03%.Our results show that the China’s value added of domestic trade exports lost 96.29 billion yuan and 382.99 billion yuan,the domestic employment decreased by 0.79 million and 3.31 million,respectively.The emerging ICT industries,represented by adva
作者
蒋茂荣
孔亦舒
夏炎
范英
JIANG Mao-rong;KONG Yi-shu;XIA Yan;FAN Ying(Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100038,China;School of Public Policy and Management,UCAS,Beijing 100049,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Institute for International Economic Research,Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Beijing 100038,China;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期58-68,共11页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA20010102)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573248,51861125101,71974183,71733003,71690245,71210005).
关键词
中美贸易摩擦
不完全替代进口需求模型
投入占用产出模型
出口增加值
就业
Sino-US trade friction
imperfect substitute import demand model
input-occupancy-output model
export value-added
employment
