摘要
人民币汇率变化及其汇率政策的选择,对于东亚区域货币金融合作和人民币的国际化有着重要意义。本文通过考察近年来人民币与世界主要货币及东亚其他货币的联动关系,分阶段探讨了人民币汇率变动对东亚货币的影响,指出人民币有条件地成为本地区潜在的"锚"货币,但现阶段这一功能只能通过保持与美元汇率的相对稳定得以实现,人民币要想独立成为东亚区域性关键货币,取决于中国能否在某种程度上替代美国成为区域内最终产品的市场提供者。同时,现阶段东亚地区制度化的汇率合作应当缓行,但有必要进行某种程度的汇率政策协调,人民币汇率政策的选择应当考虑区域合作因素。
This paper analyzes the implicit basket of RMB and other East Asian currencies and the features of the exchange rate co-movements among these currencies. It argues that RMB has the potential to become a regional anchor currency, hut in the near future, it can only be achieved when RMB maintains a relatively stable relationship with US Dollar. For RMB to be the sole regional key currency, it＇ s necessary that China in substituted for US as the region＇ s market provider of final goods. On the other hand, in current stage, it＇ s necessary to improve non-institutional exchange rate coordination in East Asia, and implementation of RMB exchange rate policy should take regional cooperation into consideration.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期8-15,共8页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金项目(项目批准号:05BGJ004)
新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目“21世纪初期的人民币:区域货币合作背景下的汇率制度改革”、人事部留学人员择优项目“东亚货币合作进程中人民币与日元的合作与协调”的资助。
关键词
人民币汇率
区域货币合作
汇率政策
人民币区域化
RMB Exchange Rate
Regional Monetary Cooperation
Exchange Rate Policy
Regionalization of RMB.
