摘要
要本文以 Amano 和 Wirjanto 永久性收入模型为基础,研究1960～2003年期间中国政府消费与居民消费之间的期内替代弹性以及两者各自的跨期替代弹性,并结合新的理论发展,检验政府和居民消费之间的互补(替代或无关)关系。研究结果表明,1978年以后政府与居民消费行为发生了结构性转变:政府消费的跨期替代弹性有了明显的下降,而居民消费的跨期替代弹性及两者之间的期内替代弹性则有了显著的上升,且改革后政府和居民消费仍然保持着互补关系。本研究也指出,现阶段扩大内需的关键在于降低居民消费跨期替代弹性、促进当期消费,同时我们不能过度依赖扩张性财政政策,因为随着跨期替代弹性的下降以及期内替代弹性上升,政府与居民消费将由互补过渡为替代关系。
This paper employs Amano and Wirjanto's(1997,1998)model of permanent income to estimate intra- temporal and inter-temporal elasticity of substitution of government and private consumption,and then studies the relation between government and private consumption during 1960～2003 in China.The results indicate that after 1978 there was a structural change:inter-temporal elasticity of government consumption decreases while the intra-temporal elasticity and the inter-temporal elasticity of private consumption increase.We also find the public and private consumption are best described as complementary after reform.At last we conclude that the key of the expansion domestic demand is to lower the inter-temporal elasticity of private consumption.Expan- sionary fiscal policy is not an appropriate policy,since if inter-temporal elasticity decreases and intra-temporal elasticity increases further,the relation of government and private consumption will change from complementary to substitutable.
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第8期37-46,共10页
The Journal of World Economy
