摘要
文章在构建一个财政支出冲击对实际有效汇率影响的理论模型的基础上,利用中国31个省份1999—2020年的面板数据进行验证,并从效应分解的角度分析财政支出冲击的跨期“数量效应”与期内“结构效应”。研究发现:财政支出增加引致实际汇率升值,支出增加1%导致实际汇率升值约0.14%;财政支出存在明显的“数量效应”,即非贸易品数量冲击对实际汇率产生正向影响,贸易品数量冲击对实际汇率产生负向影响,且贸易品数量效应更大;但财政支出未表现出明显的“结构效应”。异质性分析表明,东中部地区财政支出增加实际汇率升值且中部地区表现更为明显,西部地区影响并不显著。机制分析表明,贸易开放和房产价格均显著抑制了财政支出冲击对实际汇率的正向影响。
On the basis of constructing a theoretical model of the impact of fiscal expenditure shock on the real effective exchange rate,this paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1999 to 2020 for verification,and then analyzes the inter-temporal“quantity effect”and“structure effect”during the period of fiscal expenditure shock from the perspective of effect decomposition.The results go as below:An increase in fiscal expenditure leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate,and a 1%increase in expenditure leads to an appreciation of about 0.14%.Fiscal expenditure has obvious“quantity effect”,that is,the quantity shock of non-tradable goods has a positive impact on the real exchange rate,while the quantity shock of tradable goods has a negative impact on the real exchange rate;the quantity effect of tradable goods is greater,but the fiscal expenditure doesn’t show obvious“structure effect”.Heterogeneity analysis shows that fiscal expenditure increases in the eastern and central regions,and that the real exchange rate appreciation is more obvious in the central region,while the impact in the western region is not significant.Mechanism analysis shows that trade opening and real estate price both significantly inhibit the positive impact of fiscal expenditure shock on the real exchange rate.
作者
陈奉先
周寒寒
李娜
Chen Fengxian;Zhou Hanhan;Li Na(School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第24期123-128,共6页
Statistics & Decision
基金
北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(QNTD202206)
首都经济贸易大学研究生学术新人计划项目(2022XSXR12)
首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新项目(2022KJCX086)。
关键词
财政支出冲击
实际有效汇率
数量效应
结构效应
fiscal expenditure shock
real effective exchange rate
quantity effect
structure effect
