摘要
文章依据劳动力技术替代趋势下全生产要素养老保险缴费理论,提出基础养老保险按"产出"缴费新模式,并运用数理模型进行实证研究。结果发现,基础养老保险按"产出"缴费适度水平上限,近期为2.5%,远期为5.5%左右;适度水平下限近期为1.8%,远期为2.4%左右。养老保险按"产出"增加值缴费模式,在养老保险缴费总量增长、总量缺口减小、总量可持续性提升及缴费率下降、降费可行性、缴费主体产业间均衡等方面均呈现良好趋势。在此基础上,文章针对国家养老保险制度改革提出对策建议。
Based on the theory of total factor productivity endowment insurance payment under the trend of technology substituting for labor, the paper proposes a"production-based"payment mode for basic endowment insurance and analyzes it empirically with a mathematic model. It finds that, according to"production-based"payment mode, the appropriate contribution rate ranges from 1.8% to 2.5% in short term, and in the long run the upper and lower boundaries switch to around 5.5% and 2.4% respectively when population aging peaks. This new mode is promising to increase total amount of endowment insurance payment, reduce contribution rate and the overall gap, promote sustainability and industry equilibrium for the main contributors. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期2-14,共13页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计"(编号:71731007)的阶段性成果
