摘要
随着我国人口老龄化的加速,政府推出更为宽松的生育政策来缓解人口老龄化带来的社会问题,由“全面二孩”政策转为“全面三孩”政策。本文构建精算模型模拟“全面三孩”政策对城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性的影响,结论如下:若未实施“全面三孩”政策,基金在2033年产生累计赤字;若实施“全面三孩”政策,总和生育率在1.4-2.387,2070年累计赤字降幅达2.64%-27.32%,但未改变基金产生累计赤字的年份;基于此,若征缴率每年提高1.47%直至95.34%,并引入财政补贴、实施延迟退休年龄政策,2070年累计赤字降幅达4.13%-159.53%。可见,“全面三孩”政策可降低基金累计赤字水平,政府应出台配套措施鼓励生育三孩,并进一步提高养老保险征缴率、引入财政补贴、实施延迟退休年龄政策等。
With the accelerated aging of China’s population, the government is introducing a more relaxed fertility policy to ease the aging of the population, changing from two-child policy to three-child policy. This paper constructs an actuarial model to simulate the impact of the three-child policy on the sustainability of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees, and concludes as follows:(1) If the three-child policy is not implemented, the pension insurance fund will have a accumulated deficit in 2033;(2) If the total fertility rate is between1.4 and 2.387 after the implementation of the three-child policy, the accumulated deficit decreases by 2.64%-27.32% in 2070, but it cannot change the point at which the accumulated deficit of the fund appears;(3) Based on the implementation of the three-child policy, if raising the collection rate by 1.47% per year until 95.34%,providing financial subsidies to the fund and implementing a delayed retirement age policy, the accumulated deficit in 2070 could be reduced by 4.13%-159.53%. To sum up, the three-child policy can reduce the accumulated deficit of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees. The government should introduce supporting measures to encourage the birth of three children and further increase the collection rate of pension insurance, provide financial subsidies to the fund, and implement a policy of delaying the retirement age, etc.
出处
《财政科学》
CSSCI
2022年第9期125-138,共14页
Fiscal Science
