摘要
贸易—冲突领域的研究总体上支持了贸易和平论,但既有研究并未对支撑这两个变量因果关系的因果机制展开细致检验。文章对贸易和平论的两个主要机制——机会成本机制与高成本信号机制——的既有研究进行批判性评述,并在此基础上构造“贸易—冲突的历时性模型”以解构贸易和平论的因果机制。机会成本机制与高成本信号机制都疏于考虑时间的长短,认为双边贸易会在短时间内发生较大变化且双方都没有调整时间。当贸易—冲突的历时性模型把贸易的变化情况修改为“渐变”,并考虑双方在长时段互动中的行为方式时,即使仍保持贸易与冲突的负相关关系,机会成本机制与高成本信号机制的有效性也被严重削弱了。贸易—冲突的历时性模型对进行贸易的两国在冲突中的行为方式做出了新预测,在冲突演化的过程中,国家将尽可能在维系贸易关系的同时采取冲突政策,而不会因为紧密的贸易联系就不敢挑起冲突,也不会仅仅出于对国家安全最大化的考量而主动终止贸易。文章对太平洋战争前的美日冲突进行过程追踪式案例分析,初步检验了模型的有效性。
Research in the area of trade-conflict generally supports trade peace theory,but existing studies have not thoroughly examined the causal mechanisms underlying the relationship between these two variables.This article critically reviews the two main mechanisms of trade peace theory—opportunity cost mechanism and costly signal mechanism—and builds a longitudinal model of trade and conflict to deconstruct these causal mechanisms.Both mechanisms neglect time,assuming that trade relations change abruptly and two parties have no time to adjust.When gradual changes in trade relations are accounted for in the model,and when the model considers the behavior of the parties over time,the effectiveness of the opportunity cost mechansim and costly signal mechanism are significantly weakened.This model predicts that states will adopt opportunistic patterns of behavior,adopting conflict policies while maintaining trade relations.The article applies process-tracing to conduct a case analysis of U.S.-Japan conflict before the Pacific War to provide a preliminarily test of the model's validity.
作者
邱劭文
李奕曈
刘新民
Qiu Shaowen;Li Yitong;Liu Xinmin(the School of Politics and International Relations,East China Normal University;the Law School,East China Normal University)
出处
《当代亚太》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期134-160,164,共28页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
关键词
贸易—冲突的历时性模型
贸易和平论
因果机制
美日冲突
Longitudinal Model of Trade-Conflict
Trade Peace Theory
Causal Mechanisms
U.S.-Japan Conflict
