摘要
交通是乡村振兴的重要驱动力之一,科学评估交通驱动乡村振兴的影响效应具有重要的战略意义。为巩固拓展“三区三州”地区脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接,文中以怒江州为例,结合多源地理空间数据和系统动力学(SD)进行交通驱动乡村振兴发展状态模拟,利用涵盖经济发展、社会福利、生态环境情况的乡村振兴指数分析自然增长、交通高速发展、环境友好以及协调发展四种模式下的乡村振兴发展趋势。结果表明:1)怒江州公路里程与居民交通消费水平每增加5.04%和2.9%,乡村振兴指数上升0.03个单位,经济指数上升0.027个单位,社会福利指数上升0.0656个单位,生态指数下降0.018个单位。2)交通高速发展模式可以最大限度提升怒江州经济与社会发展水平,但会产生显著的生态环境负面影响。3)在所有发展模式中,协调发展模式可以最大程度的提升怒江州乡村振兴指数。
Transportation is one of the important driving forces of rural revitalization,and it is of great strategic significance to scientifically evaluate the impact of transportation-driven rural revitalization.In order to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation in the"three districts and three prefectures"and effectively connect with rural revitalization,this study takes Nujiang Prefecture as an example,combines multi-source geospatial data and system dynamics(SD)to simulate the development state of transportation-driven rural revitalization,and analyzes the development trend of rural revitalization under four modes of natural growth,rapid transportation development,environmental friendliness and coordinated development by using the rural revitalization index covering economic development,social welfare and ecological environment.The results indicate that:1)For every 5.04%and 2.9%increase in road mileage and residents'transportation consumption level in Nujiang Prefecture,the rural revitalization index increases by 0.03 units,the economic index increases by 0.027 units,the social welfare index increases by 0.0656 units,and the ecological index decreases by 0.018 units.2)The high-speed transportation development model can maximize the economic and social development of Nujiang Prefecture.But it will have a significant negative ecological impact.3)Among all development modes,the coordinated development mode can maximize the rural revitalization index of Nujiang Prefecture.
作者
戢晓峰
李明骏
陈方
黄海琴
曹瑞
JI Xiaofeng;LI Mingjun;CHEN Fang;HUANG Haiqin;CAO Rui(Faculty of Traffic Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504;Yunnan Modern Logistics Engineering Research Center,Kunming 650504;Yunnan Integrated Transport Development and Regional Logistics Management Think Tank,Kunming 650504;School of Marxism,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期31-39,共9页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目(乡村振兴战略导向下云南省欠发达地区公路交通资源配置优化技术)资助。
关键词
交通—乡村振兴系统
影响效应
发展模式
“三区三州”
transportation-rural revitalization system
impact effect
development model
"three regions and three prefectures"
