摘要
为揭示公路基础设施建设对农村减贫的影响,收集了2013~2018年全国31个省级行政区的面板数据。以农村贫困发生率为响应变量,公路基础设施的规模、密度、投资和硬化为解释变量,引入集成学习领域的梯度提升树(GBDT)模型和部分依赖图解释方法,从时空异质角度检验了公路基础设施变量与农村贫困发生率之间的非线性关系。研究发现:乡道铺装里程、村道铺装里程、乡道里程、时空异质性、高速里程和公路密度呈现了较高的相对重要性。公路基础设施的减贫效应主要源于整体路网密度的提升以及县、乡、村等低等级公路的建设和硬化,但减贫效应在东、中、西部呈现区域异质性。高速公路里程、村道里程、路网密度、农村公路投资完成额和道路(县乡村)铺装里程具有正向的减贫作用,且在不同时间段呈现边际递减效应。高速公路里程和村道里程对农村贫困发生率的影响具有门槛特征,当高速公路里程和村道里程达到一定规模时才会呈现减贫效果。路网密度、农村公路投资完成额和道路(县乡村)铺装里程的减贫效应具有阈值效应,当超出各自阈值后,路网密度、农村公路投资完成额和道路(县乡村)铺装里程的减贫效应趋于稳定。
This study aims at estimating the effects of road infrastructure investment on rural poverty incidence.Using the panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China from 2013 to 2018,we apply a Gradient Boosted Decision Tree(GBDT) model to explore the possible non-linear relationship between road infrastructure and rural poverty incidence in the perspective of the spatial-temporal heterogeneity.In our model,the rural poverty incidence was taken as a response variable,and scale,density,investment,and hardening of road infrastructure were set explanatory variables.The results show that factors with higher relative importance include the hardening township,and village roads,the length of village roads and the expressway,spatial-temporal heterogeneity,and road density.The effects of poverty alleviation of the road infrastructure overall rely on the improvement of road density and the hardening and construction of county,township,and village roads.The partial dependence plots illustrate that the length of highway and village road,road density,rural road investment,and hardening road length is positively related to poverty alleviation.These factors present significant marginal diminishing effects on both two different periods.The length of highway and village roads present threshold effects on rural poverty incidence,which means poverty alleviation occurs only when they reach a certain scale.The performance of road density,rural road investment,and hardening road length are also like the length of highway and village roads.The poverty alleviation effects will keep stable if the above indicators exceed their thresholds.These findings provide helpful references for the planning and construction of rural roads during the transition period between comprehensive poverty alleviation and rural revitalization,and they also assist to establish a persistent mechanism to monitor and alleviate the rural poverty incidence.
作者
陈方
李武
戢晓峰
覃文文
卢梦媛
CHEN Fang;LI Wu;JI Xiao-feng;QIN Wen-wen;LU Meng-yuan(Yunnan Modern Logistics Engineering Research Center,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;School of Marxism,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Faculty of Traffic Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期2146-2154,共9页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金(71904068)。
关键词
交通地理
交通减贫
GBDT模型
基础设施
乡村振兴
transport geography
poverty alleviation effects
GBDT model
road infrastructure
rural revitalization
