摘要
贸易便利化是实现“一带一路”沿线国家贸易通畅的重要着力点。选取2010-2019年“一带一路”沿线48国的面板数据,可通过主成分分析法测算出各国的贸易便利化水平,利用拓展引力模型分析出我国对各国的出口潜力,进而通过实证研究得出贸易便利化对我国出口潜力的影响。结果表明:沿线国家贸易便利化水平基本呈逐年上升趋势,但地区差异和国别差异较大;贸易便利化发展对我国出口潜力具有显著正向影响,沿线国家贸易便利化水平提升可通过扩大我国市场份额和增强自身贸易自由度推动我国出口潜力得以更好释放,然而沿线大部分国家的发展潜力尚未得到充分发挥,未来拓展空间较大。因此,我国要积极帮助“一带一路”沿线各国提升贸易便利化水平,改进对其出口模式,充分利用“一带一路”建设契机,实现区域间的合作共赢。
Trade facilitation is an important focus for countries along the"Belt and Road"to achieve smooth trade.Selecting the panel data of 48 countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2010 to 2019,the trade facilitation level of each country can be measured by principal component analysis,and the export potential of China to each country can be analyzed by using the extended gravity model,and then the impact of trade facilitation on China's export potential can be obtained through empirical research.The results show that the trade facilitation level of the countries along the route is basically increasing year by year,but the regional and national differences are large;the development of trade facilitation has a significant positive impact on China's export potential.The improvement of trade facilitation level of countries along the route can promote the better release of China's export potential by expanding China's market share and enhancing its trade freedom.However,the development potential of most countries along the route has not been fully utilized,and there is a large space for future expansion.Therefore,China should actively help countries along the"Belt and Road"to enhance the level of trade facilitation,improve their export models,and make full use of the"Belt and Road"construction opportunities to achieve win-win cooperation between regions.
作者
李保民
曾晨
LI Baomin;ZENG Chen
出处
《决策与信息》
2023年第9期65-77,共13页
Decision & Information
基金
2020年度安徽省高校人文社会科学研究项目“安徽技术创新对高新技术产品出口竞争力影响效应研究”(编号:SK2020A0018)成果。
