摘要
目前关于“双循环”的各种讨论,大多从理念与方向上去谈,而很少涉及循环的现实细节。本文从省内循环、省际循环和国际循环三个循环结构与网络视角展现了中国国民经济循环中大量的关键细节,而这些细节是以往研究几乎没有关注的。主要结论是:(1)从结构视角看,国民经济国内循环部分占比超过90%。2012—2017年中国国民经济循环的平均国外占比、省内占比和省际占比分别为8.3%、73.1%和18.6%。(2)从网络视角看,国民经济循环中区域网络关系具有相对稳定性。江苏、广东、浙江、上海、北京、河南、安徽、重庆、辽宁等9个地区在省际循环中处于中心地位;东部地区,特别是长三角地区处于核心地位。(3)内生结构因素对区域网络关系演化的相对重要性为43.3%。互惠效应表明,区域之间的关联呈现“礼尚往来”特征;传递效应表明,区域之间的分工呈现显著传递性和分工深化现象。八个外生属性因素对区域网络关系演化的相对重要性为56.7%,可为加快推动构建新发展格局提供有效政策切入点。
At the seventh meeting of the Financial and Economic Commission of the CPC Central Committee in April 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping firstly proposed to foster a new development paradigm featuring dual circulation,in which domestic and overseas markets reinforce each other,with the domestic market as the mainstay.Then the 14 th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development takes the construction of the new development paradigm as a new strategic task of the whole plan.As a result,the above mentioned new development paradigm of dual circulation has attracted great attention from all sectors of society including the academia and decision makers.However,the existing discussions on dual circulation are mostly about the ideas and directions instead of practical details.This paper,in a different way,presents an empirical result and a great deal of critical details in China’s national economic circulation from the perspectives of structure and network.The marginal contribution of this paper is reflected in the following three aspects.(1) We propose the issue of structural proportion in domestic economic circulation that cannot be ignored from the perspective of the new development paradigm.Based on the inter-regional input-output tables,we calculate the proportion and variation tendency of China’s intro-provincial economic circulation,inter-provincial economic circulation and the international economic circulation from six dimensions in the three aspects of intermediate input,intermediate demand and final demand.(2) We put forward that the new development paradigm with domestic market as the mainstay requires all regions of China to break the barriers and establish closely connections in division of labor and economic cooperation.It is inevitable that China’s inter-regional economic circulation will form a complex economic network.From the perspective of network,this paper,based on inter-regional input-output tables,builds a network relations model of intermediate inputs,intermediate de
作者
李敬
刘洋
LI Jing;LIU Yang(Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtse River, Chongqing Technology and Business University;School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期27-42,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJY016)的资助。
关键词
国民经济
循环结构
网络关系
投入产出
National Economy
Circulation Structure
Network Relation
Input-output
