摘要
随着我国经济由高速增长向高质量发展转型,非正规经济在促进我国劳动就业方面的作用不断凸显。本文通过编制2002-2017年包含非正规经济部门的投入产出序列表,采用投入产出模型,定量测度制造业、建筑业、批发零售住宿餐饮业、交通运输仓储邮政业、居民服务其他服务业等5个行业非正规部门发展对我国劳动就业的直接和间接效应。研究结果显示:(1)各行业非正规部门对就业的直接贡献均高于同期同行业的正规部门,而且以批发零售住宿餐饮业为主的第三产业非正规部门的就业效应高于以制造业、建筑业为主的第二产业非正规部门;(2)由于制造业和建筑业两个行业非正规部门均存在较强的后向关联效应,因而对就业的间接贡献高于以批发零售住宿餐饮业为代表的第三产业非正规部门;(3)各行业非正规部门产出变化对就业的间接贡献主要集中于农林牧渔业、制造业、批发零售住宿餐饮业、租赁和商务服务业等行业,在建筑业、交通运输仓储邮政业、居民服务其他服务业等行业的表现不容乐观;(4)动态来看,样本期内5个行业非正规部门产出变化对就业的直接和间接贡献均呈下降态势。
With the transformation of China’s economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development,informal economy plays an increasingly prominent role in promoting employment.By compiling input-output tables including the informal sectors from 2002 to 2017,this paper measures the direct and indirect effects of five informal sectors on employment in China.The results show that:1)the direct contribution of informal sector to employment is higher than that of formal sector in all the 5 industries.The employment effect of the informal sector in the tertiary industry,such as wholesale,retail,accommodation and catering,is higher than that in the secondary industry such as manufacturing and construction.2)The indirect contribution of manufacturing and construction to employment is higher than that of the tertiary industry represented by wholesale,retail,accommodation and catering due to the backward linkage.3)The indirect contribution of informal sector to employment is mainly concentrated in agriculture,manufacturing,wholesale,retail,accommodation and catering,leasing and business services.While the employment performance in construction,transportation,warehousing,postal service and other services for residents is not optimistic.4)From the dynamic point of view,the direct and indirect contribution of informal sector to employment in the five industries shows a downward trend in the sample period.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期87-98,共12页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“大数据背景下我国新经济新动能统计监测与评价研究”(18ZDA125)
国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于SAM框架的非正规经济宏观效应统计研究”(17CTJ001)
浙江省一流学科(浙江财经大学统计学)建设项目
关键词
非正规经济
就业效应
投入产出表
Informal Economy
Employment Effect
Input-Output Table
