摘要
低生育目前正呈全球蔓延趋势,人口转变论等旧有理论已经无法对低生育现象做出合理解释,理论创新需要更为关注微观层面育龄夫妇自身生育意愿。中国当前极低生育率形势客观要求生育意愿研究重点转向生育意愿的有效测量、低生育意愿成因以及基于生育意愿视角的公共政策制定这三个方面。首先,生育意愿可以拓展为包括生育动机、生育愿望和生育计划的序列性指标体系,并且测量技术呈现量表化趋势。其次,“低生育陷阱假说”、计划行为理论和TDIB模型是目前对于低生育意愿形塑机制的三种主要理论解释。最后,基于生育意愿视角的公共政策应致力于减少生育愿望和生育计划之间的差距,并将个人全生命周期、社会全人群、宏观与微观相结合这三个视角融入政策全过程。
Low fertility is currently spreading globally which cannot be fully explained by classical demographic transition theory.The current lowest-low fertility in China requires the research focus shift to the following three aspects:the measurement,causes and the public policies relating to low fertility willingness.Firstly,the fertility willingness can be expanded to a sequential indicator system including fertility motivations,fertility desires and fertility intentions.Secondly,the low fertility trap hy pothesis,the theory of planned behavior and the TDIB model are three theoretical explanations for the shaping mechanism of low fertility willingness.Finally,public policies based on the perspective of low fertility willingness should strive to reduce the gap between fertility desires and fertility intentions.
作者
王军
王广州
Wang Jun;Wang Guangzhou
出处
《清华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期201-212,F0003,共13页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国多元城镇化路径对生育意愿的影响及对策研究”(21BRK041)。
