摘要
选取内蒙古、山西、陕西、新疆4个煤炭生产省份,使用改进的Kaya恒等式和LMDI加法模型对影响我国煤炭产区碳排放的因素进行分解,得到影响我国煤炭产区碳排放的主要因素。通过对分解结果的分析得出,在我国煤炭产区的碳排放影响因素中,人均GDP效应、产业结构效应、能源利用效应较强,其中产业结构效应对碳排放影响最为显著。同时在各影响因素的时间序列研究中发现能源利用效应和煤炭消费比重效应治理的过程中,可能会产生协同效应。由此提出在碳排放治理的过程中,应深化产业结构调整,提高能源利用水平、降低工业能源利用强度,在保证经济发展的前提下更好的降低碳排放的建议。
Four coal-producing provinces,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Xinjiang are selected,and the improved Kaya identity and LMDI additive model are used to decompose the factors that affect carbon emissions in China’s coal-producing areas,and the main factors affecting carbon emissions in China’s coal-producing areas are obtained. Through the analysis of the decomposition results,it is concluded that among the influencing factors of carbon emissions in my country’s coal-producing areas,the per capita GDP effect,industrial structure effect,and energy utilization effect are relatively strong,and the industrial structure effect has the most significant impact on carbon emissions. At the same time,in the time series study of various influencing factors,it is found that the process of governance of energy utilization effect and coal consumption proportion effect may produce synergistic effects. Therefore, in the process of carbon emission control, China’s coal production areas should deepen the adjustment of industrial structure,improve energy utilization level,reduce industrial energy utilization intensity,and better reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic development.
作者
方宇衡
Fang Yuheng(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第12期40-45,共6页
Coal Economic Research
