摘要
根据2011-2017年《中国统计年鉴》公布的相关数据,选取学前教育毕业人数、招生人数以及在校人数作为预测指标,通过构建灰色预测模型对我国学前教育规模进行预测分析,未来几年,我国学前教育毕业人数、招生人数、在校人数持续增长,我国学前教育规模持续扩大;建议今后政府应该继续加大对学前教育的财政投入,建立合理的成本分担机制;积极鼓励、引导社会资本参与学前教育的建设,制定良好的价格与监督机制;促进学前教育师资建设,保持城市地区与农村地区教育的公平性。
Objective:to forecast and analyze the scale of preschool education in China by building a grey prediction model,so as to provide reference for relevant departments in formulating preschool edu⁃cation policies in the future.Methods:according to the relevant data published in China statistical year⁃book from 2011 to 2017,the number of graduates,enrollment and students in preschool education were selected as the prediction indicators,and the gray model of preschool education scale was established and analyzed.Results:the grey prediction model established in this study has high accuracy and can be used for medium and long term prediction.It is predicted that in the next few years,the number of grad⁃uates,enrollment and students in China′s preschool education will continue to grow,and the scale of China’s preschool education will continue to expand.Conclusion:preschool education is the beginning of lifelong learning and an important part of the national education system.In the future,the govern⁃ment should continue to increase financial investment in preschool education and establish a reason⁃able cost-sharing mechanism.We should actively encourage and guide nongovernmental capital to par⁃ticipate in the construction of preschool education and establish a sound pricing and supervision mecha⁃nism.We will promote the development of preschool teachers,and ensure fairness in education in ur⁃ban and rural areas.
作者
丁海峰
罗娟
Ding Haifeng;Luo Juan(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201600)
出处
《保山学院学报》
2020年第5期64-70,共7页
JOURNAL OF BAOSHAN UNIVERSITY
基金
国家社会科学基金青年课题“流动人口随迁子女教育政策评估及对策研究”(项目编号:CGA150154)。
