摘要
目的研究GM(1,1)模型在我国妇幼保健指标中的预测效果,并对未来妇幼保健指标进行短期预测,为我国妇幼保健服务水平的逐步完善提供科学依据。方法收集我国2008-2017年的孕产妇死亡率(maternal mortality rate,MMR)、新生儿死亡率( neonatal mortality rate,NMR)、婴儿死亡率( infant mortality rate,IMR)和5 岁以下儿童死亡率( under-five mortality rate,U5MR),建立模型,应用MATLAB2018b软件进行预测分析。结果我国MMR、NMR、IMR和U5MR的预测模型分别为:x^(k+1)=-476.08e^-0.09k+510.28(C1=0.165,P1=1.000),x^(k+1)=-108.43e^-0.09k+118.63(C2=0.043,P2=1.000),x^(k+1)=-160.60e^-0.09k+175.50(C3=0.085,P3=1.000),x^(k+1)=-224.37e^-0.08k+242.87(C4=0.124,P4=1.000),平均相对误差分别为:3.46%、0.67%、1.75%和2.36%。结论GM(1,1)模型适用于对我国妇幼保健指标的预测,拟合精度均较高;预测未来三年各指标将继续逐年下降,相关部门应有针对性的加强管理工作。
Objective To study the predictive effect of model [GM( 1,1 )]in China's maternal and child health indicators,and to predict the future maternal and child health indicators in a short-term, and provide a scientific basis for the gradual improvement of maternal and child health care services in China.Methods The maternal mortality rate ( MMR),neonatal mortality rate ( NMR),infant mortality rate ( IMR) and under-five mortality rate ( U5MR) were collected from 2008 to 2017 in China.Models were established and MATLAB 2018b software was used for predictive analysis.Results The prediction models of maternal mortality rate,neonatal mortality rate,infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate were as follows: x^( k + 1)=- 476.08e - 0.09k + 510.28 ( C1 = 0.165,P1 = 1.000),x^( k + 1)=- 108.43e - 0.09k + 118.63( C2 = 0.043,P2 = 1.000),x^( k + 1)=- 160.60e - 0.09k + 175.50( C3 = 0.085, P3 = 1.000),x^( k + 1)=- 224.37e - 0.08k + 242.87( C4 = 0.124,P4 = 1.000),the average relative errors were as follows: 3.46%,0.67%,1.75% and 2.36%.Conclusions The GM ( 1,1 ) is suitable for the prediction of maternal and child health indicators in China,and the fitting accuracy is high.It is predicted that the indicators will continue to decline year by year in the next three years,and relevant departments should strengthen the management work in a targeted manner.
作者
祝丽玲
孟繁君
杨迪
ZHU Li-ling;MENG Fan-jun;YANG Di(Department of Preventive Medicine,Academy of Public Health of Jiamusi University,Jiamusi 154007,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期977-980,1007,共5页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
关键词
GM(1
1)模型
妇幼保健
预测分析
GM( 1,1 ) model
Maternal and child health care
Predictive analysis
