摘要
在完善和发展Koopman等构建的测算各经济体参与全球价值链分工状况的指标体系的基础上,运用UNCTAD-Eora Global Value Chain Database和WIOD提供的数据,对全球价值链的演进、中国产业在全球价值链中竞争地位的变化进行了实证研究,得到如下结论:逆全球化并非近两年政治因素所致的暂时现象,全球需求萎缩可能是长期趋势;2008年以来,世界主要出口贸易大国的全球价值链上游参与度发生了显著的逆转性变化,从不断上升转向持续下降;出口贸易强国主导区域价值链并深度嵌入全球价值链;中国出口占全球份额持续上升,自2011年起成为世界第二大出口国,但出口占GDP比重较低;2008年以后中国全球价值链上游参与度继续提升,下游参与度较大幅度下降,Koopman意义的全球价值链地位优势逐步显现;中国已经成为世界贸易大国主要上游供应国,并超越美国和其他贸易大国成为世界各经济体主要上游供应国;其他新兴经济体在全球价值链中的竞争地位与中国差距巨大,中国在全球价值链的供给优势短期内难以替代。然而,中国产业在全球价值链中的增值较低,完整意义的全球价值链地位优势尚存在差距。中国应因应逆全球化趋势,积极调整和完善国内国际两个循环圈;充分利用宝贵的“未脱钩期”,强大国内市场,不断提升产业竞争力,以赢得全球价值链重构的新型竞争。
This paper uses data from the UNCTAD-Eora Global Value Chain Database and the WIOD on the basis of improving and developing Koopman and other indicator systems that measure the participation of various economies in the GVC division of labor,and conducted empirical research on the history and current situation of GVC,and the development and changes of Chinese industry's competitive position in GVC.The conclusions are as follows.Firstly,de-globalization is not a temporary phenomenon caused by political factors in the past two years,but shrinking demand may be a long-term trend.Secondly,after 2008,the GVC upstream of the world's major export trading countries underwent significant reversal changes,from a steady increase in the past to a continuous decline.Thirdly,a strong export trade country dominates the regional value chain and is deeply embedded in the global value chain.Besides,as the world's second largest exporter since 2011,China's export share in the world continues to rise,while exports accounted for a relatively low proportion of GDP;after 2008,China's upstream GVC degree continued to increase,and the downstream degree decreased significantly,gradually showing Koopman's advantages of GVC position;as the main upstream supplier of GVC in the world's major trading country,China surpassed the United States and other major trading countries to become the main upstream supplier in the world's six continents.Moreover,the competitive position of other emerging economies in GVC has a huge gap with China,which means China's supply advantage in GVC is difficult to replace in the short term;while the value-added of Chinese industries in GVC is low,and there is a gap in the advantages of GVC in the full meaning.Therefore,China should adapt to the trend of de-globalization,actively adjust and improve dual circulation,make full use of the precious"non-decoupling period"to continuously improve industrial competitiveness,and win the new competition of GVC reconstruction.
作者
牛志伟
邹昭晞
卫平东
NIU Zhi-wei;ZOU Zhao-xi;WEI Ping-dong
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期28-47,共20页
Reform
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“两种工业化战略进程中比较优势动态升级与战略匹配研究”(15AJY012)。
