摘要
国际局势正在发生重大而深刻变化,未来发展方向及前景不明朗,大国战略忧虑增加,国际竞争趋于强化。美国特朗普政府对华政策出现重大调整,中美竞争提前进入新的阶段,呈现出前所未有的深刻性、复杂性和全域性,为国际战略局势发展增添重大变数。在未来中短期里,国际系统的"难"和"险"将更多地向中国一边汇集;但从中长期看,世界政治的"时"和"势"将逐步向中国倾斜。古人云:"故善战者,求之于势"。中国要在大国博弈中占有先机,就不能过于看重一般竞争技巧和拘泥于一时一域的得失,关键是要敏锐洞察世界政治的发展走势,适应时代发展潮流,推动中国与世界开展更加积极的战略互动,努力做到因势利导且进退有据,以更广泛的国际合作对冲美国的战略挤压,牢牢把握中美关系发展的大方向,努力塑造对中国有利的战略态势,始终掌握战略主动权。这就要求我们需要创新和完善国家发展模式,不断提高国家治理水平,确保国家长治久安,确保"中国梦"的实现,并在此基础上更加深入地参与国际竞争和全球治理,不断提升中国在全球战略格局中的结构性权力,为全球持续发展和战略稳定作出重要贡献。
The current international situation is undergoing significant and profound changes. Firstly, the number of factors affecting the world political process is increasing;secondly, the international competition is intensified;thirdly, the great powers’ anxieties become deepening;and lastly, the future of the international relations becomes quite obscure. The adjustment of the Trump Administration’s policy toward China has particularly added enormous new variables to the situation. The development of US-China competition, which came into a new era earlier than expected, will become a significant sign of the evolution of world politics. The depth, complexity and coverage of the US-China competition are unprecedented. In the short and medium term, China will face more difficulties and risks than America. However, as long as China copes with them appropriately, the world politics will gradually provide more and more opportunities and favorable conditions for China."The clever combatant looks to the effect of combined energy." To get a head start in the great powers game, China should neither overvalue the ordinary competitive skills nor overestimate the temporary gains and losses. What is more important is that China should have a keen insight into the probable development of the world politics, promote positive strategic interactions with the world while adapting itself to the evolving era and shifting circumstances. Furthermore, China should make the best use of the situation to take strategic initiative to reshape a favorable situation: taking reasonable measures, hedging against the strategic containment from America with broader international cooperation, and leading the direction of the relationship with America. Particularly, it is necessary to work on the state development and good governance to achieve a long-term peace and stability. Only on this basis could China enhance its structural power and contribute to sustainable global development and governance.
作者
唐永胜
李薇
沈志雄
Tang Yongsheng;Li Wei;Shen Zhixiong
出处
《国际观察》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期22-41,共20页
International Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"国际体系变迁及中国战略选择"(项目编号:15AGJ001)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
国际变局
中美竞争
战略博弈
全球治理
International Transition
China-US Competition
Strategic Gaming
Global Governance
