摘要
2018年以来朝鲜半岛局势的缓和,既与大国朝鲜半岛政策的调整有关,也离不开朝韩双方的政策调整和相向而行。相对而言,朝韩双方对战略自主性的追求促进了朝韩和解,也缓和了朝鲜半岛安全局势,推动了朝鲜半岛战略自主性的提升。基于战略自主性产生的朝韩关系缓和显著体现在确立朝鲜民族自主性、减少朝韩军事对抗、加强朝韩经济合作、促进朝韩民族和解和推动朝鲜半岛无核化等方面。朝韩双方的合作带来了朝鲜半岛战略自主性的提升,将给朝韩关系、朝鲜半岛局势、大国关系和东北亚地区秩序带来复杂影响。不过考虑到朝鲜半岛停和机制的转换离不开相关大国的支持、朝韩双方政策的延续性和美国对朝政策依旧强硬等因素,朝鲜半岛战略自主性提升能否延续仍存在较大的不确定性。
The relaxation of tension in the Korean Peninsula situation since 2018 is not only related to the adjustment of great powers'policies to the Korean Peninsula,but also inseparable from the policy adjustment of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK)and the Republic of Korea(ROK)and their positive roles to this end.Relatively speaking,the pursuit of strategic autonomy by DPRK and ROK has promoted the reconciliation between these two sides,mitigated the tense security situation on the Korean Peninsula and improved the strategic autonomy of it.And,the alleviation of DPRK-ROK relations,based on strategic autonomy,has manifested in establishing Korean national autonomy,reducing military confrontation,strengthening economic cooperation,promoting reconciliation between these two nations and accelerating the denuclearization of Korean Peninsula,etc.Besides,the cooperation of the two countries has resulted in the enhancement of strategic autonomy of the Korean Peninsula,which will have complex influence on the DPRK-ROK relations,security situation on the Korean Peninsula,great power relations and the order of Northeast Asia.However,considering that replacing the armistice with a peace regime in the Korean Peninsula cannot be separated from the support of relevant great powers,the continuity of DPRK and ROK policies and the fact that U.S.policies toward DPRK are still tough.Thus,there is still a large degree of uncertainty as to whether the improvement of strategic autonomy of the Korean Peninsula can be extended.
作者
凌胜利
Ling Shengli(Institute of International Relations in China Foreign Affairs University;Beijing International Exchanges and Foreign Affairs Administration)
出处
《当代韩国》
2018年第4期1-13,共13页
Contemporary Korea
基金
教育部重大攻关项目"中国特色大国外交研究"(项目编号:15JZD032)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金科研创新重大项目(项目编号:3162018ZYKA02)
霍英东教育基金会项目"中美亚太主导权竞争与亚太国家的战略选择"(项目编号:161088)阶段性成果
关键词
战略自主性
朝核问题
朝韩关系
美朝关系
Strategic Autonomy
the Korean Nuclear Issue
the DPRK-ROK Relations
the DPRK-U.S.Relations
