摘要
目的探究江苏省昆山市1981—2015年去肿瘤死因可增加期望寿命和恶性肿瘤所致的潜在减寿年数时间趋势。方法1981—2015年恶性肿瘤死亡病例来源于死因监测，以计算去肿瘤死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年数；去肿瘤死因可增加期望寿命=去肿瘤死因期望寿命-平均期望寿命。用中国2000年第5次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年数。使用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）评价去肿瘤死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年数在年份之间变化趋势。结果昆山市1981—2015年因恶性肿瘤所致的标化潜在减寿年数在男性人群（APC=－2.31%，95%CI：－2.51%~－2.11%）和女性人群（APC=－1.91%，95%CI：－2.26%~－1.56%）中均明显下降。然而，去肿瘤死因可增加期望寿命在男性人群由1981年的3.23岁上升到2015年的4.72岁（APC=2.42%，95%CI：1.64%~3.20%）；在女性人群中由1981年的1.10岁上升到2015年的2.94岁（APC=3.91%，95%CI：1.78%~6.04%）。结论因恶性肿瘤所致的年龄标化潜在减寿年数逐年下降，去肿瘤死因可增加期望寿命逐年上升，提示因恶性肿瘤所致过早死亡在逐渐减轻，但恶性肿瘤对全人群健康影响并没有减轻。
ObjectiveThis study aimed to examine temporal trends in all cancer-eliminated life expectancy and potential years of life lost （PYLL） in Kunshan city, Jiangsu province, between 1981 and 2015.MethodsData were collected from the vital records of Kunshan city. Cancer-eliminated life expectancy and PYLL were calculated by sex, and the Chinese population from the year 2000 was used to calculate age-standardized PYLL. Estimated annual percentage changes （APC） and 95% confidence intervals （CI） were used to examine temporal trends in increased cancer-eliminated life expectancy.ResultsBetween 1981 and 2015, there was a significant decrease in age-standardized PYLL among males （APC=-2.31%, 95% CI：-2.51% to -2.11%） and females （APC=-1.91%, 95% CI：-2.26% to -1.56%）. However, an increase was found in cancer-eliminated life expectancy in males and females, from 3.23 to 4.72 years in males （APC= 2.42%, 95% CI： 1.64% to 3.20%） and from 1.10 to 2.94 years in females （APC= 3.91%, 95% CI： 1.78% to 6.04%）.
ConclusionAn overall decrease in age-standardized PYLL was observed when all cancers were considered, and an increase in cancer-eliminated life expectancy was found, suggesting that premature deaths due to cancers were reduced gradually. However, the negative effects of cancer on the health of the whole population have not been fully alleviated.
作者
胡文斌
张婷
秦威
史建国
仝岚
邱和泉
周杰金
亦徐
罗晓明
沈月平
Hu Wenbin;Zhang Ting;Qin Wei;Shi Jianguo;Tong Lan;Qiu Hequan;Zhou Jie;Jin Yixu;Luo Xiaoming;Shen Yueping(Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Kunshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunshan 215300, China;Kunshan New and High-Tech Industrial Development Zone of Jiangpu Community Health Services Center, Kunshan 215300, China;Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China)
出处
《中华健康管理学杂志》
CAS
2018年第2期129-135,共7页
Chinese Journal of Health Management
基金
昆山市社会发展科技项目（KS1655）
关键词
癌
预期寿命
年度变化百分比
Carcinoma
Life expectancy
Annual percentage change
