摘要
[目的]探究昆山市1981~2014年食管癌死亡趋势及定量估计影响因素。[方法]食管癌死亡病例来源于死因监测;计算食管癌粗死亡率与年龄标化死亡率;使用平均年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)评价食管癌死亡率变化趋势。以0~74岁累积死亡率来评价食管癌历年死亡风险。采用率差别分解法分析人口因素对食管癌死亡率变化的贡献。[结果]1981~2014年食管癌年龄标化死亡率在男女合计(APC=-4.2%,95%CI:-4.8%^-3.6%)、男性(APC=-4.3%,95%CI:-4.9%^-3.7%)和女性(APC=-4.4%,95%CI:-5.1%^-3.7%)人群中均呈现明显下降趋势。食管癌0~74岁累积死亡率由1981年的2.85%下降到2014年的0.45%(APC=-5.0%,95%CI:-5.7%^-4.3%),食管癌死亡的风险在0~74岁年龄组逐渐降低。食管癌死亡率的下降是人口因素与非人口因素共同作用结果,其中人口因素贡献在男女合计、男性及女性人群中分别为-68.66%、-68.39%和-127.43%。[结论]昆山市1981~2014年食管癌死亡率在非人口因素作用下明显下降,但是这种下降趋势受到了人口因素的阻碍。
[Purpose] To estimate the temporal trend of esophageal cancer mortality and quantitatively estimate the influence factors in Kunshan,Jiangsu province,1981 -2014. [Methods]Esophageal cancer death cases were derived from vital registration system. Esophageal cancer crude mortality and age standardized mortality（ASR） were calculated,and annual percent changes（APC） with 95% confidence interval was estimated to quantify the change in mortality according to gender. Cumulative death rate（0-74 years） was used to estimate the death risks. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. [Results] Esophageal cancer declined in both gender（APC=-4.2%,95%CI：-4.8%--3.6%）,male（APC=-4.3%,95%CI：-4.9%--3.7%）,and female（APC=-4.4%,95% CI：-5.1% --3.7%）. Moreover,the cumulative mortality of esophageal cancer declined from2.85% in 1981 to 0.45% in 2014（APC=-5.0%,95%CI：-5.7%--4.3%）. The decrease of mortality of esophagus cancer dued to the effect of the demographic and non-demographic factors,where the proportion of demographic in both gender,male and female were-68.66%,-68.39%,and-127.43%,respectively. [Conclusion] The mortality of esophageal cancer significantly declined in Kunshan from 1981 to 2014,whereas the decline was hindered by the factor of demographic.
出处
《中国肿瘤》
CAS
2016年第4期260-266,共7页
China Cancer
关键词
食管癌
死亡率
年度变化百分比
人口因素
差别分解法
esophageal cancer
mortality
annual percent change
demographic factors
different de composition
