摘要
目的了解江苏省昆山市1993-2014年肺癌死亡率变化趋势及定量估计影响因素，为肿瘤预防控制工作提供科学依据。方法收集江苏省昆山市1993-2014年肺癌死亡数据，分性别和年龄组计算肺癌粗亡率与年龄标化率，采用平均年度变化百分比（APC）评价肺癌死亡率的变化趋势，采用率差别分解法分析人口因素对肺癌死亡率变化的贡献。结果肺癌粗死亡率在男性（APC=2．7％，95％CI=2．1％～3．4％，P〈0．001）、女性（APC=3．7％，95％CI=2．7％～4．7％，P〈0．001）和总人群（APC=2．9％，95％CI=2．3％～3．5％，P〈0．001）中均呈上升趋势；肺癌中国标化死亡率在女性（APC=1．7％，95％CI=0．7％～2．7％，P=0．006）和总人群（APC=0．8％，95％C1=0．2％～1．5％，P=0．017）中均呈上升趋势，但在男性人群（APC=0．4％，95％CI=-0．2％～1．0％，P=0．196）中无明显变化趋势；人口因素与非人口因素共同作用促进了肺癌粗死亡率，男性、女性和总人群人口老龄化贡献率分别为69．16％、40．92％和57．28％。结论江苏省昆山市1993—2014年肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势，其中人口因素是促进因素之一，寻求非人口因素是当前践行预防为主的重要任务。
Objective To explore the temporal trend and quantitatively estimated influencing factors of lung cancer mortality in Kunshan city,Jiangsu province during the period of 1993 -2014. Methods Records of lung cancer death were derived from data of vital registration system. Crude death rates and age standardized rate（ASR） were calculated and annual percentage change （ APC ） by sex was estimated. Difference decomposition was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the change of lung cancer mortality. Results We observed significantly upward trend in overall and gender-specific crude lung cancer mortality, with the APC of 2.9% （95 % confidence interval 95 % CI] ： 2. 3 % - 3.5 % ） for total population ,2.7 % （ 95 % CI： 2. 1% - 3.4% ） for the males, and 3.7 % （ 95 % CI： 2. 7 % -4. 7% ）for the females（ all P 〈 0. 0001 ）during the period; significantly upward trend in Chinese population ASR of lung cancer death was also observed in the whole population（APC =0. 8% ,95% CI：O. 2% - 1.5% ;P =0. 0165） and in the females（APC = 1.7%,95% CI：0.7% - 2. 7%;P =0.0055）but not in the males（APC =0.4%,95% CI： -0. 2% -1.0% ;P = 0. 1962）. The increase in crude lung cancer mortality was mainly due to demographic change and the proportions of demographic contribution to the mortality were 57.28% in whole population ,69. 16% in the males, and 40.92% in the females,respectively. Conclusion The mortality rate of lung cancer drastically increased in the past 22 years and demographic factor was one of the enhancement factors for the increase in Kunshan city. Prevention-oriented strategy is needed to explore nondemographic risk factors of lung cancer.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期1460-1463,共4页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
关键词
肺癌
死亡率
变化趋势
差别分解法
lung cancer
mortality
temporal trend
difference decomposition
