摘要
在全球气候变化和快速城市化的背景下,城市自然灾害风险可能越来越大。为应对新风险的产生和现有风险的累积,必须将灾害管理从应急管理转变为前瞻性风险管理。前瞻性风险管理是指处置和寻求避免发生新的或增加原有灾害风险的管理活动,其核心手段是土地利用规划,基本方法是接受部分风险、建设抗灾社区、规避灾害风险,保障措施是风险知识教育和有效风险沟通。在城市自然灾害风险管理的过程中,风险问责机制应该建立在灾害风险绩效评估基础上。运用突变理论初步建立了风险管理绩效评估的指标体系,综合评价得到风险管理绩效值及等级,并反馈到前瞻性风险管理过程中,促进城市可持续发展。
Urban natural disaster will become higher in the context ot global climate change and rapid urbanization. The shifts as a strong emphasis on prospective disaster risk management as opposed to emergency manage- ment must be identified to manage new risk and the accumulated old risk. Prospective disaster risk management means the management activities that address and seek to avoid the development of new or increased disaster risks. The core of prospective risk management is land use plan, and the basic methods are accepting risk, constructing disaster-resistant community, avoiding risk. In addition, prospective disaster risk management is guaranteed by risk knowledge education and risk communication. In the process of risk management, performance assessment is nee- ded of accountability for disaster risk. We introduce catastrophe theory to assess risk management performance by index system, and calculation process. At last, risk management performance value is calculated and as feedback to prospective risk management which helps urban sustainable development.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2017年第2期1-6,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030310364)
湛江市哲学社会科学2016年度规划项目(ZJ16YB09)
关键词
前瞻性
风险管理
城市
自然灾害
绩效评估
prospective risk management
urban natural disaster
risk management performance assessment
