摘要
阐述了区域用水量内涵及其影响因素分析方法,把区域用水量影响归纳为区域经济发展驱动和水资源禀赋约束两方面;根据聚类线性回归计算原理,建立了区域用水量影响因素分析模型及其计算方法步骤。针对太湖流域的水资源利用影响因素,从人口规模、生产总值、产业结构等方面入手,利用聚类线性回归模型对太湖流域区域用水量的影响因素进行评价研究;从相关分析看,区域经济发展的用水刚性需求是太湖流域区域用水量的主要驱动因素,区域产业结构对太湖流域的用水形成显著的抑制效应;而在水资源禀赋约束方面,太湖流域受水资源短缺胁迫较小,区域用水量还存在增长的空间。
The connotation of regional water resources utilization and its influencing factors are described and analyzed, and the regional economic development driving and water resources endowment restricting are generalized as two aspects in influencing factors of regional water resources utilization. Clusterwise linear regression model is introducted and described, furthermore the influencing factors of regional water resources utilization of Taihu basin area are analyzed. Some factors are selected such as population proportion, GDP, industrial structure etc, and clusterwise linear regression method is applied to evaluate and research influencing factors of regional water resources utilization. According to the analysis, there is a result that the dominant factor of Taihu basin water resources utilization is that water resources rigid requirements of regional economic development. Additionally, industrial structure on the Taihu Basin bring about inhibited effect in utilization of water resources. For the water resources endowment restricting, the water resources shortage stress of Taihu basin is comparatively low, there until is climbing space of water resources utilization.
出处
《海河水利》
2016年第3期32-36,42,共6页
Haihe Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51379181)
关键词
区域
用水量
影响因素
聚类线性回归
regional
water resources utilization
influencing factors
clusterwise linear regression
