摘要
用水是整个水资源系统中的一个重要环节,需水预测是制定水资源规划、管理以及国民经济计划的基础和依据.提出了基于主成分分析法分析的需水量预测模型,试图能探讨需水定额与经济社会各影响关系响应,以郑州市为例对2010年、2020年和2030年的工业、农业和生活的需水量进行了预测,并与郑州市水资源规划的预测结果进行了比较,分析及比较结果表明:该模型预测结果比规划结果偏低,2010年、2020年和2030年平水年分别需水162295×104m3、179966×104m3和194696×104m3,需水结构的变化基本反映了郑州市产业结构调整和社会经济良性发展的趋势.
Water use is an important sector for the whole water resources system, and water demand is the basis and reference for the water resources plan, management, and national economic development. The main purpose of the paper is to ration respond between the water demand quota and society economic. Water demand model based on the principal component analysis are presented. The zhengzhou city is taken as the example. The results are compared with the water resources plan forecasting of the Zhengzhou city. The results show that the forecast is lower than the plan. The water demand in 2010,2020, and 2030 are 162295 × 10^4m^3, 179966 × 10^4m^3 和 194696 × 10^4m^3, respectively. The variety of the water demand structure of the model reflect the trend of the industry adjust and the society economic development.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第21期101-109,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目资助(2006BA06B08-05)
关键词
主成分分析
需水量预测
郑州市
principal component analysis
water demand forecast
zhengzhou city
