摘要
本文利用时间序列的建模方法,对我国1987-2006年的能源消费总量数据进行了实证分析,构建了ARIMA模型。经检验该模型能够很好的拟合全社会对于能源的需求趋势。在此基础上作了短期预测,最后给出了结论及建议。
This paper applies the method of establishing time-series model to empirically analyze China＇s gross energy consumption and establishes ARIMA model which is tested to better work out the trend of society＇s energy demand. Based on this, this paper makes a short-term predication, reaches conclusions and makes suggestions.
出处
《统计教育》
2008年第9期59-61,共3页
Statistical education
