摘要
能源消费总量是指报告期内一定区域内社会各行业和居民生活所消费的各种能源数量。北京地区的能源资源极为有限,能源自我供给严重不足,2006年能源消费总量已经居全国第二。这种能源消耗极大、自供给严重不足的矛盾已经成为制约北京市可持续发展的一个瓶颈。我们通过构建ARIMA(1,2,1)模型,力图对北京市2007-2015年能源消费进行短期预测。预测结果表明,北京市未来能源消费呈加快增长态势,这对于北京市建设资源节约型和环境友好型城市的目标是一大挑战。为了应对这一挑战,提出如下建议:倡导全面节能观念;完善能源供应体系,实现多元化能源消费;建立以价格杠杠和市场为导向的长效节能机制。
The total amount of energy consumption is the amount of energy consumed by variant social lines and denizen in some area and some time. The energy resource of Beijing is limited and difficult to afford itself. In 2006, Beijing was the second city of energy consumption in the country. The contradiction of large demand and limit supply has restricted the sustainable development of Beijing. After built an ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） （ 1,2, 1 ） Model, we conducted a short-term energy consumption forecast within the period of 2007 - 2015 on Beijing. The results showed that future energy consumption growth of Beijing was accelerating, which was a major challenge for Beijing＇ s objective of constructing resources-saving and environment-friendly cities. To resolve this problem, some suggestions were given as follows： encourage the all-arotmd energy-saving belief, make the energy-providing system more perfect and make the energy consumption more variant and develop long-term effective mechanism oriented by the price and market.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2008年第3期99-102,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
