基于NCEP/NCAR分析资料和拉格朗日轨迹输送模式FLEXPART,通过气块轨迹计算,对2005年夏季亚洲季风区对流层向平流层输送(Troposphere to Stratosphere Transport,简称TST)的近地层源区、输送路径及其时间尺度问题进行了一些初步探讨。结...基于NCEP/NCAR分析资料和拉格朗日轨迹输送模式FLEXPART,通过气块轨迹计算,对2005年夏季亚洲季风区对流层向平流层输送(Troposphere to Stratosphere Transport,简称TST)的近地层源区、输送路径及其时间尺度问题进行了一些初步探讨。结果表明:(1)夏季亚洲季风区TST两个主要的边界层源区,一个是热带西太平洋地区;另一个是青藏高原南部、孟加拉湾以及印度半岛中北部等地区,上述两个区域与夏季强对流的分布相一致。在对流层顶高度附近(约16km高度),两个近地层源区的垂直输送贡献相当。但进一步分析发现,穿越对流层顶高度的质量输送只有约10%能够进入20～22km高度的平流层中,且主要源于以青藏高原南侧为代表的南亚季风区(约贡献75%),这进一步强调了青藏高原及其周边区域在全球TST过程中的重要地位。(2)轨迹分析显示,夏季亚洲季风区对流层进入平流层的"入口区"主要在(25°N～35°N,90°E～110°E)区域的青藏高原及其周边区域。TST路径受对流层上层南亚高压闭合环流、北半球副热带西风急流和赤道东风急流的共同控制。(3)亚洲季风区TST两个主要的过程,一个是和夏季湿对流抬升直接联系的快速输送过程,它可以使近地层大气在1～2天内输送到平流层中,贡献了整个TST的10%～30%;另一个是大气辐射加热所致的大尺度垂直输送,该输送是一个相对的慢过程,时间尺度一般为5～30天。此结果意味着,源于地表的短生命周期的大气污染物可通过光化学反应过程对该区域平流层臭氧及其他大气痕量成分平衡产生重要影响。展开更多
Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and sur...Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and surface precipitation, and reduce the uncertainty of aerosol indirect effects in GCMs. In this paper, we implement cloud microphysical schemes including two-moment Ar and Re considering relative dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution into version 4.1 of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics＇s atmospheric GCM （IAP AGCM 4.1）, which is the atmospheric component of the Chinese Academy of Sciences＇ Earth System Model. Analysis of the effects of different schemes shows that the newly implemented schemes can improve both the simulated shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings, as compared to the standard scheme, in lAP AGCM 4.1. The new schemes also effectively enhance the large-scale precipitation, especially over low latitudes, although the influences of total precipitation are insignificant for different schemes. Further studies show that similar results can be found with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.展开更多
国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP)自20世纪90年代中期创建以来迅速发展,为全球气候变化的模拟和未来预估提供了不可替代的数据支持。论文系统回顾了CMIP1到CMIP6的发展历程,包含理论框架、未来情景构...国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP)自20世纪90年代中期创建以来迅速发展,为全球气候变化的模拟和未来预估提供了不可替代的数据支持。论文系统回顾了CMIP1到CMIP6的发展历程,包含理论框架、未来情景构建、国际参与情况等方面。在此基础上,论文全面总结了CMIP模式对全球及中国区域气温、降水及其他变量的模拟能力,并重点比较了CMIP3、CMIP5和CMIP6模式的历史试验模拟结果。随CMIP的不断发展,模式在物理参数化方案、空间分辨率等方面有了一定的提高,其模拟能力也随之不断改善。但模式对区域尺度气候特征的模拟能力仍然有限,尤其是对于中小尺度降水变化特征的模拟,并且不同模式的模拟能力存在很大差异。最后,论文针对以上问题展望了CMIP模式的可能发展方向。展开更多
The Middle East (ME) is characterized by its water shortage problem. This region with its arid climate is expected to be the most vulnerable in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. Iraq (located in ME...The Middle East (ME) is characterized by its water shortage problem. This region with its arid climate is expected to be the most vulnerable in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. Iraq (located in ME) is seriously experiencing water shortage problem. To overcome this problem rain water harvesting can be used. In this study the applicability of the long-term weather generator model in downscaling daily precipitation Central Iraq is used to project future changes of precipitation based on scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results indicated that December-February and September-November periods, based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs, showed an increasing trend in the periods considered;however, a decreasing trend can be found in March, April, and May in the future.展开更多
全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR(Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution)由国家(北京)气候中心自主研发并参与了第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划,该模式在BCC-CSM1.1m版本基础上对大气辐射传输、深对流过程...全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR(Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution)由国家(北京)气候中心自主研发并参与了第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划,该模式在BCC-CSM1.1m版本基础上对大气辐射传输、深对流过程及重力波等方面进行了优化,因此,该模式对东亚地区降水和气温模拟能力的改进亟需进一步评估。本文主要基于不同格点观测数据集与中国区域站点观测数据,系统对比分析BCC-CSM2-MR、BCC-CSM1.1m两个模式版本对东亚地区季节平均降水(气温)和日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)相比BCC-CSM1.1m,BCC-CSM2-MR改进了对东亚大部分区域季节平均降水的模拟能力,尤其是青藏高原地区夏季平均降水,明显提高了对中国东南地区、朝鲜半岛及日本降水月际变化的模拟性能;(2)BCC-CSM2-MR对东亚地区季节平均气温模拟能力改进不明显,且对东亚大部分区域气温月际变化的模拟误差大于BCC-CSM1.1m;(3)对日极端降水(气温),BCC-CSM2-MR的模拟能力优于BCC-CSM1.1m,明显提高了对中国东南地区日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。总体而言,BCC-CSM2-MR在深对流过程参数方案中的改进有利于对东亚地区降水的模拟。展开更多
文摘基于NCEP/NCAR分析资料和拉格朗日轨迹输送模式FLEXPART,通过气块轨迹计算,对2005年夏季亚洲季风区对流层向平流层输送(Troposphere to Stratosphere Transport,简称TST)的近地层源区、输送路径及其时间尺度问题进行了一些初步探讨。结果表明:(1)夏季亚洲季风区TST两个主要的边界层源区,一个是热带西太平洋地区;另一个是青藏高原南部、孟加拉湾以及印度半岛中北部等地区,上述两个区域与夏季强对流的分布相一致。在对流层顶高度附近(约16km高度),两个近地层源区的垂直输送贡献相当。但进一步分析发现,穿越对流层顶高度的质量输送只有约10%能够进入20～22km高度的平流层中,且主要源于以青藏高原南侧为代表的南亚季风区(约贡献75%),这进一步强调了青藏高原及其周边区域在全球TST过程中的重要地位。(2)轨迹分析显示,夏季亚洲季风区对流层进入平流层的"入口区"主要在(25°N～35°N,90°E～110°E)区域的青藏高原及其周边区域。TST路径受对流层上层南亚高压闭合环流、北半球副热带西风急流和赤道东风急流的共同控制。(3)亚洲季风区TST两个主要的过程,一个是和夏季湿对流抬升直接联系的快速输送过程,它可以使近地层大气在1～2天内输送到平流层中,贡献了整个TST的10%～30%;另一个是大气辐射加热所致的大尺度垂直输送,该输送是一个相对的慢过程,时间尺度一般为5～30天。此结果意味着,源于地表的短生命周期的大气污染物可通过光化学反应过程对该区域平流层臭氧及其他大气痕量成分平衡产生重要影响。
基金partially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0601904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41690115 and 41572150)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61432018)supported by the National Major Research High Performance Computing Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFB0200800)supported by a “973” project (Grant No. 2014CB441302)supported by the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research program
文摘Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and surface precipitation, and reduce the uncertainty of aerosol indirect effects in GCMs. In this paper, we implement cloud microphysical schemes including two-moment Ar and Re considering relative dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution into version 4.1 of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics＇s atmospheric GCM （IAP AGCM 4.1）, which is the atmospheric component of the Chinese Academy of Sciences＇ Earth System Model. Analysis of the effects of different schemes shows that the newly implemented schemes can improve both the simulated shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings, as compared to the standard scheme, in lAP AGCM 4.1. The new schemes also effectively enhance the large-scale precipitation, especially over low latitudes, although the influences of total precipitation are insignificant for different schemes. Further studies show that similar results can be found with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.
文摘国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP)自20世纪90年代中期创建以来迅速发展,为全球气候变化的模拟和未来预估提供了不可替代的数据支持。论文系统回顾了CMIP1到CMIP6的发展历程,包含理论框架、未来情景构建、国际参与情况等方面。在此基础上,论文全面总结了CMIP模式对全球及中国区域气温、降水及其他变量的模拟能力,并重点比较了CMIP3、CMIP5和CMIP6模式的历史试验模拟结果。随CMIP的不断发展,模式在物理参数化方案、空间分辨率等方面有了一定的提高,其模拟能力也随之不断改善。但模式对区域尺度气候特征的模拟能力仍然有限,尤其是对于中小尺度降水变化特征的模拟,并且不同模式的模拟能力存在很大差异。最后,论文针对以上问题展望了CMIP模式的可能发展方向。
文摘The Middle East (ME) is characterized by its water shortage problem. This region with its arid climate is expected to be the most vulnerable in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. Iraq (located in ME) is seriously experiencing water shortage problem. To overcome this problem rain water harvesting can be used. In this study the applicability of the long-term weather generator model in downscaling daily precipitation Central Iraq is used to project future changes of precipitation based on scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results indicated that December-February and September-November periods, based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs, showed an increasing trend in the periods considered;however, a decreasing trend can be found in March, April, and May in the future.
文摘全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR(Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution)由国家(北京)气候中心自主研发并参与了第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划,该模式在BCC-CSM1.1m版本基础上对大气辐射传输、深对流过程及重力波等方面进行了优化,因此,该模式对东亚地区降水和气温模拟能力的改进亟需进一步评估。本文主要基于不同格点观测数据集与中国区域站点观测数据,系统对比分析BCC-CSM2-MR、BCC-CSM1.1m两个模式版本对东亚地区季节平均降水(气温)和日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)相比BCC-CSM1.1m,BCC-CSM2-MR改进了对东亚大部分区域季节平均降水的模拟能力,尤其是青藏高原地区夏季平均降水,明显提高了对中国东南地区、朝鲜半岛及日本降水月际变化的模拟性能;(2)BCC-CSM2-MR对东亚地区季节平均气温模拟能力改进不明显,且对东亚大部分区域气温月际变化的模拟误差大于BCC-CSM1.1m;(3)对日极端降水(气温),BCC-CSM2-MR的模拟能力优于BCC-CSM1.1m,明显提高了对中国东南地区日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。总体而言,BCC-CSM2-MR在深对流过程参数方案中的改进有利于对东亚地区降水的模拟。
