摘要
选取乌江中上游地区1961-2019年的逐日降水数据,采用趋势分析、EOF、小波分析等方法,研究极端降水在时空上的变化特征,同时为了使研究具有整体性,利用CMIP6中5个GCMs下的3种情景数据(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585),在降尺度处理后预估未来(2020-2100年)极端降水的变化。结果表明:1961-2019年整个流域地区极端降水事件虽然有增有减,但无显著性变化;在变化周期上,信号强烈的周期主要在23~30 a的时间尺度上,且贯穿整个时序;5个极端降水指数的第1模态表明其在空间变化上具有一致性,第2模态则有差异;未来极端降水事件整体上随SSPs情景的升高而愈发显著,且多以正趋势为主。研究结果可为乌江流域地区水安全管控、规划建设、防灾减灾等提供参考。
Based on the daily precipitation data of the middle and upper reaches of the Wujiang River from 1961 to 2019,the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation were studied using trend analysis,EOF and wavelet analysis.At the same time,in order to make the study holistic,three scenarios(SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585)under five GCMs in CMIP6 were used to estimate future precipitation changes(2020-2100)after downscaling.The results show that the extreme precipitation has increased and decreased in the past 59 years with insignificant changes.In terms of the change cycles,the cycle of strong signal mainly concentrated on the time scale of 23-30 a and ran through the whole time series.In the first mode,the changes of the five extreme precipitation indices were consistent spatially,but differentiated in the second mode.In general,the future extreme precipitation events will increase with the increase of SSP scenarios,and the trend is mainly positive.The research results can provide some reference for water security control,planning and construction,disaster prevention and mitigation in the Wujiang River Basin.
作者
冯椰林
焦树林
贺中华
杨柳英
FENG Yelin;JIAO Shulin;HE Zhonghua;YANG Liuying(School of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期84-94,共11页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U1612441、41471032)
贵州省水利厅自然科学基金项目(KT201412)。
关键词
极端降水事件
极端降水指数
降水预估
CMIP6
GCMS
乌江中上游地区
extreme precipitation event
extreme precipitation index
precipitation prediction
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)
global climate models(GCMs)
the middle and upper reaches of Wujiang River
