摘要
针对第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中3个全球气候模式对中国气温季节变化模拟能力的空间差异特征进行具体分析。结果表明:BCC-CSM1. 1(m)模式和GFDL-CM3模式能够再现中国气温的季节性变化,在中国东部地区模拟能力较强,平均绝对误差和均方根误差均较小,在中国西部地区模拟能力较弱,平均绝对误差和均方根误差较大。与BCC-CSM1. 1(m)和GFDL-CM3模式相比,HADGEM2-ES模式再现中国地区气温季节变化的能力最弱,平均绝对误差和均方根误差在西部部分地区、内蒙古地区和东北地区较大,在华南地区南部较小。在相同模式下,日平均气温模拟效果最好,其次是日最低气温,日最高气温模拟效果最差。纬度、经度、海拔和坡度对气候模式模拟效果的影响存在模式间的差异,而坡向和地形遮蔽度对模式的模拟效果无明显影响。
The climate system model is an important tool for studying the mechanism of climate change and predicting future climate change. Due to the extreme complexity of the climate system, there may be some errors and limitations in simulating the climate. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the simulation capability of climate models. Nowadays, many researches have been done on the assessment of climate system modeling temperature capability and the prediction of future temperature changes. However, there is no report on the relationship between climate modeling capacity to simulate the seasonal variation of air temperature and some influencing factors. Therefore, this paper analyzes the spatial difference characteristics of simulation capability of air temperature in China, using BCC- CSM1.1 （m） ,GFDL-CM3 and HADGEM2-ES global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Pro- ject Phase 5 （CMIP5）, based on the daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data obtained from 663 conventional meteorological stations in China during the time period from 1951 to 2004. The simulation capability of three models are verified by using the observational air temperature data, and its relationships are discussed with latitude,longitude, elevation, slope, aspect and terrain obscuration （ slope, aspect and terrain obscuration are obtained from 500 m ～ 500 m digital elevation model）. The results showed that the BCC-CSM1.1 （m） and GFDL-CM3 model can reproduce the seasonal variation of air temperature in China. The mean absolute error and root mean square error of daily mean temperature and daily minimum temperature simulated by models are smaller in Northeast China, North China, South China and East China, the simulation capability is stronger than those in the other areas. However, in Western China, the simulation capability is relatively weak characterized by large mean absolute and root mean square errors. Compared with the daily mean and minimum temperature, the mean absolute
作者
卢晓菲
任传友
王艳华
崔凤茜
芦晓彤
宫诏健
LU Xiao-fei;REN Chuan-you;WANG Yan-hua;CUI Feng-qian;LU Xiao-tong;GONG Zhao-jian(Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Agronomy College,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,Liaoning,China;Liaoyang Meteorological Bureau,Liaoyang 111000,Liaoning,China;Yingkou Economic-Technological Development Area Meteorological Bureau,Yingkou 115007,Liaoning,China)
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期972-983,共12页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家重点研发计划项目课题(2016YFD0300103)
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2016SYIAEZD1)
关键词
全球气候模式
气温
空间差异
global climate models
air temperature
spatial difference
