摘要
短时交通流预测在城市交通控制和管理中起着十分重要的作用。本文通过分析短时交通流量数据在时间序列上的特点 ,引入混沌理论的分析方法 ,从非线性时间序列预测的角度对交通流量预测进行了研究。通过计算交通流系统相空间重构参数 ,给出了一种基于相空间重构理论的局部预测方法 ,对城市道路路段交通流量进行短时预测 。
Short-term traffic flow forecasting plays a very important role in urban traffic management and control.In this paper,according to the chaotic property of urban traffic flow,we compute the parameters of phrase space reconstruction for traffic flow system.Meanwhile A local-forecasting method is introduced to predict urban road short-term traffic flow based on the theory of phrase space reconstruction.This method is applied to the prediction fo urban road stort-term traffic flow.Case study using real data from SCOOT system proves the validity of the method.The research in this paper is a significant attempt to forecast traffic flow from non-linear point.
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期71-75,共5页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (698740 2 1 )
中国博士后科学基金资助项目
关键词
短时交通流
相空间重构
预测
混沌
Short-term traffic flow
Phrase space reconstuction
Forecasting
Chaos
