摘要
时间序列的非线性预测误差可用来辨别产生这个时间序列的动力学系统是浑沌的还是随机的．据此，本文分析了自１９８２年１月３０日１２点开始的分辨率为１ｍｉｎ的ＡＥ指数构成的时间序列，共１５０００个数据点．首先用其中的一部分数据构造了一个从非线性确定性的到线性统计的范围很宽的预测模型，然后利用此模型对另一部分数据进行预测．预测误差的结果表明，ＡＥ指数所表征的磁层具有浑沌行为．用同样的数据，利用滞后时间相空间重构法得到的系统吸引子的关联维为２．５．
Nonlinear predictive error of a time series can be used to distinguish chaos from randomness for a dynamical system which generates the series. Based on this, we analysed a time series of AE index (from 12h, Jan. 30, 1982) with a resolution of one min and 15000 data points. At first, using one part of the data, a wide predictive model is constructed. The model varies from nonlillear deterministic extreme to the linear stochastic extreme. Then another part of the data is Predicted by this model. The results of predictive error show that the magnetospheric process discribed by AE index displays a chaotic behaviour. Using the same data and the method of time delay reconstructing phase space, the correction dimension of the attractor is computed, it is about 2.5.
出处
《空间科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第2期101-108,共8页
Chinese Journal of Space Science
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
浑沌
奇怪吸引子
磁层
太阳风
Chaos, Strange attractor, Fractal Deminsion, Phase Space
