摘要
本文将供给侧和需求侧的风险波动纳入一个统一的贸易理论框架,考察了风险厌恶的代表性市场主体在供给侧对投入品来源地组合和在需求侧对出口品目的市场组合的决策机制,测算了供给风险分散指数和需求风险分散指数,探讨了中国“双循环”新发展格局下产业链安全的构建路径。研究发现:中国在参与国际循环中,日本和韩国逐渐取代欧美发达国家,能够较好地分散中国的供给风险;相较于北美市场,亚洲市场和欧洲市场能够更好地分散中国的需求风险;中国整体供给风险分散水平处于长期的波动之中,而需求风险分散水平呈现出持续下降的态势“;一带一路”沿线国家更能够分散中国的供给风险,尤其是农产品行业和矿产品行业的供给风险,但不能很好地分散中国的需求风险。通过构建潜在国内贸易流发现,畅通国内大循环可以提升中国整体需求侧的风险分散水平,但不能有效提升供给侧的风险分散水平。考虑供求风险分散并没有提升中国的福利水平,其中,无法有效分散的供给风险和进口成本的高波动性是导致中国福利变动的最主要因素。本文的研究突破了当前有关产业链安全的理论模型构建和测度瓶颈,系统性评估了中国产业链安全的实现路径,为高水平高质量的开放体系建设提供了新的方向。
The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,with geopolitical conflicts and economic and trade frictions continuously escalating the risks of decoupling and breaking of the global industrial chain. In the process of accelerated restructuring of the global industrial chain,how to disperse the risks of the industrial chain and maintain the security and stability of the industrial chain is the most urgent task currently faced by China in building the new development paradigm and modern industrial system. Ensuring the stability and security of the industrial chain requires the achievement of security and stability through both supply and demand dimensions. What is the way for the construction of industrial chain security from the perspective of supply and demand risk diversification? Existing literature has not conducted in-depth research on this.This paper for the first time incorporates the risk fluctuations from both the supply side and the demand side into a unified trade theoretical framework. It examines the decision-making mechanism of risk-averse representative market entities in their choice of input source country combinations on the supply side and export market combinations on the demand side. It calculates the supply risk diversification index and the demand risk diversification index, and provides an estimation and decomposition of welfare. It is found that Japan and South Korea are gradually becoming partners that can better diversify China's supply risks,and the Asian market and the European market can better diversify China's demand risk. China's overall supply risk diversification level is in a long-term fluctuation,while the demand risk diversification level shows a continuous downward trend. Partners along the Belt and Road are more able to disperse supply risk,but not demand risk. Smoothing the domestic circulation can enhance risk diversification level on the demand side of China,but not on the supply side. Supply side risk that cannot be dispersed and the high volatility
作者
李敬子
高重阳
何祚宇
LI Jing-zi;GAO Chong-yang;HE Zuo-yu(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)
出处
《中国工业经济》
北大核心
2023年第12期24-41,共18页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“GVC视角下多维贸易成本及其第三国效应:指标测度、理论拓展与经验分析”(批准号71973155)。
关键词
产业链安全
新发展格局
风险分散
供需冲击
“一带一路”倡议
industrial chain security
new development pattern
risk diversification
supply and demand shocks
the Belt and Road Initiative
