摘要
在全球经济断层加深与增长前景不确定性加剧的形势下,中国正积极构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。在此背景下,本文基于前沿的极值理论对各部门的金融风险进行分解,在国内与国际两大经济循环体系内分别考察产业贸易中心性、贸易外向度与金融风险间的关系。研究发现,贸易网络结构对部门金融风险存在显著影响;国民经济体系内的中心部门与其他部门存在广泛的高强度贸易关联,在金融市场中具有稳健但脆弱的风险特征;中心部门对整体性的股市震荡更为敏感,且能够对非中心部门的金融风险产生较大的影响;与此同时,国际经济体系中的外向型部门普遍面临更高的输入性金融风险;随着新兴经济体与中国的贸易关联日益紧密,中国与新兴市场的金融风险共振强度持续升高。进一步研究表明,产业贸易主要影响金融风险的系统性关联成分,对个体尾部风险的作用则相对较弱。最后,本文对新发展格局下的金融风险防范提出了相关建议,为现阶段统筹做好重大金融风险的防范化解工作提供了有益的政策启示。
Given the increasing uncertainties of world economy, China is pushing the new development paradigm featuring dual circulation, in which domestic and overseas markets reinforce each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay. In this context, according to China’s non-competition input-output tables, this paper identifies the industrial chain under the new development paradigm, and analyzes the roles of 42 industries in the trade network. In addition, this paper uses the R~2 of factor model to measure the financial risks of various industries in China from 2015 to 2021. Based on the latest extreme value theory, it further decomposes financial risks into systemic linkage and individual tail risk.On this basis, this paper adopts nonlinear Granger causality test and wavelet coherence analysis to examine the relationships among trade centrality, foreign trade dependence and financial risk.It is found that the structure of trade network may influence financial risks significantly. Since the cross-industry and cross-market contagion of financial risks coexist,financial risk is the result of internal friction and external shocks. This requires financial regulators to comprehensively consider the status of each sector in China’s trade system and the international value chain system. Central industries in the national economy have high-intensity trade linkages with other sectors,so they may show robust-yetfragile characteristic. These industries have a higher degree of exposure to systemic financial risks,and may have a strong impact on non-central industries. This also leads to a higher vulnerability of China’s financial system especially when a tail risk event occurs. In fact,since all industries interact closely with each other through the input-output network,the effect of“being too connected to fail”can be observed in real economy. At the same time,research findings also indicate that the industries with high foreign trade dependence generally face higher imported financial risks. Tail risks in the stock
作者
王姝黛
杨子晖
WANG Shu-dai;YANG Zi-hui(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University;Advanced Institute of Finance,Sun Yat-sen University)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第8期63-81,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“行业间系统性风险传染的产业作用机制与宏观驱动因素研究”(批准号20CJY067)。
关键词
金融风险
贸易中心度
贸易外向度
新发展格局
financial risk
trade centrality
foreign trade dependence
new development paradigm
