摘要
本文将产业链的投入产出网络结构引入包含批发部门和零售部门的DSGE模型中,研究在通货膨胀传导中投入产出网络对加总冲击和部门异质性冲击等不同类型冲击传导效果的影响及其机制。结果发现,投入产出网络既会通过中间品需求渠道增强通货膨胀传导,又会通过零售价格黏性、中间品投入比例和中间品构成等产业链因素阻滞通货膨胀传导。当面临加总冲击时,中间品需求渠道占主导,通货膨胀传导表现为完全传导;当面临部门异质性冲击时,产业链因素的阻滞作用占主导,通货膨胀传导表现为相对松散的不完全传导。根据通货膨胀的持续性和普遍性原则以及不同类型冲击的传导机制,货币政策需要根据冲击的类型和持续性选择通胀目标——面临加总冲击或持续性较强的部门异质性冲击时,货币政策应同时盯住PPI和CPI;面临持续性不强的部门异质性冲击时,货币政策只需盯住CPI。根据上述传导机制,当不同部门异质性冲击同时发生且方向相反时,PPI和CPI的走势由本部门的异质性冲击主导从而会发生背离。
The existing literatures have confirmed the significant impact of the global industrial chain on inflation transmission.However,there are great differences in inflation between China and other economies such as the United States and the European Union.For example,China's CPI has remained stable when the US and the EU have experienced high inflation since 2021,and there were also obvious differences in trends before 2021.This shows that the global industrial chain may have limited explanations for China's inflation.Some Chinese scholars have studied the impact of the domestic industrial chain on inflation transmission,but most of them adopt a vertical input⁃output structure,which is far from the practical industrial chain structure with complicated input⁃output networks.There are also some studies that use input⁃output networks to describe domestic industrial chains and investigate the impact on inflation transmission and optimal monetary policy.However,they do not consider the differences in transmission effects and mechanisms between various shocks caused by the asymmetry of input⁃output networks.Moreover,they also ignore the practical characteristics that the input⁃output table is calculated by producer prices and there are significant differences between producer prices and consumer prices.This paper uses input⁃output networks to describe the structure of the domestic industrial chains and introduces it into the DSGE model which includes two types of production sectors,i.e.,the wholesale sector and the retail sector.This paper analyzes the impact of input⁃output networks on the transmission effects of different shocks such as aggregate shocks and sectoral heterogeneous shocks,studies the transmission mechanisms and the role of the input⁃output networks characteristics,and explains the divergence between PPI and CPI in China.The marginal contributions of this paper are threefold.Firstly,combined with the statistical characteristics of the input⁃output table,the DSGE model including the wholesa
作者
肖雅慧
侯成琪
XIAO Yahui;HOU Chengqi(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University;School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Beijing Institute of Technology)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第11期24-43,共20页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD105)
国家自然科学基金项目(72073104)的资助。
关键词
产业链
投入产出网络
通货膨胀
传导机制
货币政策
Industrial Chain
Input⁃Output Networks
Inflation
Transmission Mechanisms
Monetary Policy
