摘要
本文基于超越对数支出函数的分析框架,构建了一个外部循环内部化的评价体系。在此基础上,运用中国海关数据估计了超越对数需求系统中的核心参数和中国进口需求者的保留价格,并利用大数据挖掘进一步测算了进出口企业间的国内贸易成本,在微观层面测算了中国外部循环内部化的潜力、短板与福利。研究发现:2000—2014年中国整体外部循环内部化的潜力均在60%以上,且基础制造业和省域内的内循环潜力占据主体地位。就短板及其分解而言,产业布局不合理是中国外部循环内部化受阻的首要来源,技术或资源缺失虽在诸多短板中占比不高,但存在明显的上升趋势;初级品行业外部循环内部化的潜力最低,且产业布局不合理和国内生产成本过高的短板明显;产品质量无法满足国内需求以及技术或资源缺失,是制约高技术制造业国内循环的重要因素。中国供给侧的缺口和过剩都非常大,不过随时间推移,两者均呈明显下降趋势,表明中国供给侧结构性改革成效彰显。在最优匹配的前提下实施外部循环内部化后,国内需求者的福利水平将得到改善,但在时间趋势上其所带来的福利提升在不断降低。本文的研究为出口转内销战略实施以及构建新发展格局实现路径提供了一定的理论支撑。
Based on the translog expenditure function, this paper constructs an evaluation system for internal circulation.Then this paper estimates a key parameter of this translog model and reservation price of Chinese importers by using China customs data.Moreover, we calculate the domestic trade costs between enterprises through big data mining.In addition, we estimate internal circulation potential, short boards and welfare at the micro level for the first time.It is found that internal circulation potential is more than 60% over the period 2000—2014.Basic manufacturing industry and intra provincial circulation will occupy the dominant position.In terms of short board and its decomposition, short board with unreasonable industrial layout is the main source of obstruction to internal circulation.Besides, the short board with lack technology or resources accounts for a low proportion for the whole short boards.However, the rate of short board with lack of technology or resources is increasing.For the primary product industry, its internal circulation potential is the lowest, and its short board with unreasonable industrial layout and short board with high domestic production costs are the most obvious.For the high-tech manufacturing industry, quality mismatched short board and short board with lack technology or resources are the most prominent.The estimated supply-side gap and surplus are both large, but both show an obvious downward trend, which indicates that China’s supply-side reform has achieved remarkable results.If China takes internal circulation, the welfare of domestic demanders will be improved in the case of optimal matching.However, the welfare improvement is decreasing with the lapse of time.This paper provides a new theoretical support and empirical basis for the implementation of the export to domestic sales strategy and the realization path of building the new development paradigm.
作者
何祚宇
高重阳
李敬子
HE Zuo-yu;GAO Chong-yang;LI Jing-zi(School of Business Administration,Zhongman University of Economics and Law,W uhan 430073,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期24-41,共18页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“企业层面全球价值链的研究:指标测度、理论机制与中国经验”(批准号71703170)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“GVC视角下多维贸易成本及其第三国效应:指标测度、理论拓展与经验分析”(批准号71973155)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“本地市场效应与服务贸易增长的内生动力研究:理论、机制与中国经验”(批准号71603285)。
关键词
外部循环内部化
经济福利
保留价格
企业间贸易成本
供需匹配
internal circulation
economic welfare
reservation price
trade costs between enterprises
supply-demand matching
