摘要
面对复杂的社会经济发展形势,我国提出加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。基于世界投入产出模型,本文提出以中国经济对本国最终需求依存度和对国外最终需求依存度衡量中国参与国内循环、国际循环的相对程度;并从整体、分最终需求、分部门等角度定量分析了我国参与国内国际循环程度的变化趋势。结果发现,加入WTO后,我国经济参与国际循环的程度明显提升,2006年达到峰值,2007年后,我国经济国际循环参与程度开始下降。分不同最终需求看,我国经济在国际循环中的需求结构保持稳定,对国内投资的依存度持续上升,对国内消费的依存度先下降后缓慢上升。分部门看,不同产业参与国内循环、国际循环的程度及变化趋势具有异质性。
Entering a new stage of development, China will quicken its pace in fostering a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.The foundational question is the measurement of the relative degree of participation in domestic and international circulations. The added value dependence on domestic final demand and foreign final demand is introduced as an indicator of the relative degree of participation in the domestic and international circulations. Based on the World Input-Output Tables from WIOD, the relative level and evolution trend of relative degree of participation in domestic and international circulations in China from 2000 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. In addition, the comparative analysis is carried out between different countries and different sectors.The results show that:(1) After joining the WTO, the participation of China in the international cycle has increased significantly, reaching a peak in 2006 and then began to decline from 2007.(2) The dependences of China on the United States, Germany and Japan have shown downward trends, while the dependences of the United States, Germany and Japan on China are going up.(3) The demand structure of China in the international circulation remains stable, and its dependence on domestic investment has been rising, while its dependence on domestic consumption has been falling before 2006 and then rises.(4) The participation of different industries in the domestic and international cycles and their changing trends are heterogeneous.The proportion of added value that depends on domestic final demand and foreign final demand is introduced as an indicator to measure the relative degree of economic participation in the domestic and international cycles. The results shed light on the domestic and international dual-cycle participation in China and have important implications for policy makers.
作者
陈全润
许健
夏炎
季康先
CHEN Quan-run;XU Jian;XIA Yan;JI Kang-xian(School of Statistics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;MOE Philosophy and Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Monitoring,Forecasting,Early Warning and Policy Simulation(Cultivation,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences),Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期12-19,共8页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助面上项目(71974183)
国家自然科学基金资助国际(地区)合作与交流项目(51861125101)
数字经济监测预测预警与政策仿真教育部哲学社会科学实验室(培育)(中国科学院大学)基金资助项目。
关键词
双循环
依存度
世界投入产出模型
dual circulation
degree of dependence on foreign trade
world input-output model
