摘要
准格尔旗地形地貌复杂,受气候干旱、过度放牧、过度开发矿产资源等自然因素和人类活动影响,准格尔旗生态环境脆弱,是黄河流域内蒙古段典型生态脆弱区。利用准格尔旗2000—2019年的社会统计数据、landsat TM/OLI遥感影像数据,采用PSR模型建立准格尔旗生态安全评价指标体系,采用灰色关联度模型筛选出影响准格尔旗生态安全的主要驱动因素,并进行了准格尔旗生态安全预测。结果表明:准格尔旗生态安全综合指数呈增大趋势,生态安全程度为临界安全,说明生态安全状况得到改善;生态安全状况变化与区域第二产业占比、年均气温、城市面积、人口规模及恩格尔系数的变化密切相关;准格尔旗生态安全预测显示2020—2029年生态安全状况将有所改善。
Jungar Banner has complex topography,and is affected by natural disasters such as climate drought,overgrazing,over⁃exploitation of mineral resources and human activities.Jungar Banner has a fragile ecological environment,which is a typical ecological fragile area in In⁃ner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the social statistical data of Jungar Banner from 2000 to 2019 and landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images data,the ecological security evaluation index system of Jungar Banner was established by using PSR model,and the important driving factors affecting the ecological security of Jungar Banner were screened out by using grey correlation model,and the ecologi⁃cal security of Jungar Banner was predicted.The results show that a)the comprehensive evaluation index of ecological security in Jungar Ban⁃ner shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2019,and the ecological security status remains at the critical security level,indicating that the ecological security status in this region has been improved.b)The dynamic change of ecological security is closely related to the change of the proportion of regional secondary industry,annual average temperature,urban area,population and Engel coefficient.c)The results of the ecological security prediction model of Jungar Banner show that the ecological security index of this area will continue to rise in the next 10 years.
作者
刘晓民
阿木古楞
杨耀天
王文光
王虎
LIU Xiaomin;Amuguleng;YANG Yaotian;WANG Wenguang;WANG Hu(Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Inner Mongolia Yellow River Institute of Ecological Research,Hohhot 010020,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in the Inner Mongolia Reaches of the Yellow River,Hohhot 010018,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Water Conservancy Development Center,Hohhot 010010,China;Water Conservancy Bureau of Wushen Banner,Erdos 017300,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第2期112-117,共6页
Yellow River
基金
内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2021ZD0008)。
